Surpassing $32.99 Signals Optimism
The high of $32.99 today marks the initial price point to keep an eye on. This breakout follows the first emergence of the Bull Pennant pattern. Today’s low serves as a support point, in conjunction with the lower boundary. There are numerous aspects to consider here. While there is indeed a bull pennant formation, it exists within a prior range of consolidation.
As a result, the potential for continuing upward movement post-breakout seems uncertain. On the flip side, a drop from the pennant’s base could indicate a bearish reversal, particularly from a smaller symmetrical triangle pattern. Moreover, any potential bullish pennant setups have been deemed ineffective since they weren’t triggered.
Need for Confirmation Above $33.70
The upper limit of the pennant saw a recent peak at $33.70. If a breakout occurs here, it could serve as an early short-term target and symbolize a new bullish signal. The previous swing high ranged from $34.24 to $34.59 in March, aligning with a longer-term trend of $34.87 from October. After a low swing at $28.32, there was a notable surge in buying activity in early April. A 50% retracement was observed at lower levels, along with AVWAP levels derived from the low swing in October 2023.
Bearish Outlook If Below $31.89
A downturn below $31.89 could currently bring it to $31.22, which might test a support level for the 200-day MA. There’s also a potential focus on $31.00 in conjunction with a 50% retracement level. Further support is noted at a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level around $30.37. Additionally, the 20-week MAs have effectively established support in recent weeks. Thus, a drop below $31.91 may suggest a bearish trend compared to the 20-week MA.
To view all economic events for today, refer to the Economic calendar.
