Supporters of Ukraine in Europe and Washington are hoping that the upcoming summit in Turkey, suggested by Russian President Vladimir Putin, will collapse. They believe this could demonstrate to President Trump that Moscow cannot be relied upon.
Putin proposed negotiations with Ukraine in Istanbul on Sunday. However, late on Wednesday, the Kremlin announced its delegation, which surprisingly did not include any high-ranking officials, not even Putin himself.
This week, Trump had urged Putin to participate in the talks. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated he would only join if he sensed that Putin was “not afraid” and willing to set diplomatic goals.
Trump expressed a desire for both parties to agree on an immediate 30-day ceasefire — something Zelensky supports — but he hoped discussions could begin without getting into the specifics of the ceasefire right away.
During his visit to the Middle East, Trump suggested he might also travel to Turkey, saying, “It’s a possibility [that Putin would come]. I wouldn’t even know if he was there if I wasn’t.” This comment was made while he was on Air Force One heading to Qatar.
The Russian diplomatic delegation that was announced looked to be a low-ranking team consisting of aides and deputy ministers from foreign and defense departments. Additionally, a group of technical experts from Russia has also been sent to Istanbul, according to Russian state media.
In Istanbul, Secretary of State Marco Rubio is meeting with European partners to discuss support for Ukraine.
Many remain doubtful about Putin’s intentions.
The European Union is preparing its 17th round of sanctions that could be imposed if Russia fails to agree on a ceasefire or refuses to engage in talks.
Senator Tim Kane (D-Va.) pointed out the skepticism of U.S. and European allies regarding Putin’s true interest in a ceasefire.
European leaders have expressed, “If we are expected to provide security during the conflict, we should be included in any agreements. That’s a reasonable expectation.” Having recently visited Finland, Germany, Poland, and Ukraine, he feels very pessimistic about any potential progress.
As both Kyiv and Moscow attempt to negotiate a peace agreement, Trump has hinted that the U.S. might impose more sanctions on Russia but hasn’t specified which sectors would be impacted.
Senator Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) worked alongside Senator Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) on a sanctions proposal that has garnered 70 co-sponsors, aiming to bypass the filibuster and allow for potential presidential vetoes to be overturned.
Senator Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.), a prominent member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, mentioned that White House officials appear keen to move forward with the Graham-Blumenthal sanctions bill.
A spokesperson for Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) indicated that there hasn’t yet been any announcement regarding the timing of legislative discussions.
Shaheen said, “There’s implicit support for this, and it could significantly alter the dynamic. It’s unclear why momentum has stalled on the majority side.” She emphasized her ongoing concern about the negotiations regarding the war in Ukraine and her apprehension about Putin’s tactics and willingness to use leverage for the benefit of Ukrainians.
“He seems more focused on Putin’s actions right now, and I hope he’s becoming aware of what we need to do to continually support Ukraine,” she said.
Senator Mike Rounds (R-S.D.) expressed his confidence that Trump is aware of the threat posed by Putin and believes the President understands the importance of including various parties in the peace process, noting, “You need to pull him into this. It means making it a threat to his very existence.”
Yet, without U.S. pressure, Zelensky seems to be depending on a coalition of ambitious European allies, who have bolstered political support amid a disconnect from Trump’s backing for Kyiv.
Leaders from France, Germany, Poland, and the UK visited Kyiv recently, collectively stating that if Russia does not agree to a comprehensive ceasefire, they will need to impose stringent sanctions targeting banks, the energy sector, and fossil fuels.
If both Putin and Zelensky manage to meet in Turkey, it will be their first gathering since December 2019. Previous negotiations occurred face-to-face in Istanbul back in March 2022.
Similar dynamics seem to be developing now, as a senior non-resident fellow at the Hudson Institute, Casapoal, warned that Russian troops appear to be gearing up for a significant summer offensive, likely focusing on areas like Sumy, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhzhia.
He cautioned that while Russia has captured about 80 square miles of Ukrainian territory lately, this could lead to intensified military pressure for any ceasefire discussions. He noted that Ukrainian defenses around a critical logistics area in Pokrovsk have shown remarkable resilience, keeping Russian advances at bay even amid large-scale offensives. Nonetheless, Russia has made tactical gains, encircling many Ukrainians.
“Given that Russian troops are generating an estimated 30,000 new soldiers each month, Moscow can adapt its combat units while maintaining Ukraine’s existing personnel levels,” he reflected.
Updated at 5:35pm
