Juan Soto’s Struggles: Analyzing His Slow Start

Every appearance by Juan Soto feels like a cue for critics, especially after he notably watched seven consecutive pitches—six of them straight—during his first two at-bats against the Red Sox on Wednesday. It’s an unusual sight, really.

This player, whose contract is worth an astounding $765 million, currently boasts a .803 OPS and 1.7 BWAR. But still, he hasn’t quite fulfilled the hefty expectations tied to the biggest contract in sports history.

Analyzing his first 49 games with the franchise has turned into a bit of a task for many, with people diving deep into stats trying to figure out what might be off.

There are some significant statistical trends that likely shed light on why his performance has been lackluster, particularly in terms of power.

This season, Soto is experiencing a career-low slugging rate of .429.

Interestingly, one of the major changes is a decrease in his bat speed, which has dipped 2.0 mph from last year, now sitting at 73.4 mph. That’s also slightly less than the Padres’ 2023 average.

Soto’s drop in bat speed, the second biggest in MLB, raises some eyebrows. He entered the subway series with alarming figures, according to sources in the field.

Francisco Lindor and Mark Vientos are also on the list of players who have seen similar declines.

The 26-year-old himself noted that a 2.0 mph decrease is “abnormal” for him.

Bat speed, after all, plays a crucial role in a player’s ability to hit with power. For instance, Aaron Judge recorded a bat speed of 76.6 mph recently.

This decline in speed could very well be why Soto is currently on pace for around 26 home runs this season, quite a drop from the 41 homers he hit last year.

This decrease might also explain his challenges when facing faster pitches this year.

Currently, Soto’s batting average sits at .167 with an OPS of .417. Against pitches clocking in at 95 mph or more, his performance has been particularly poor compared to previous seasons.

Notably, Soto had a more impressive season last year, holding a .347 batting average and .718 OPS against those same types of pitches.

He’s also struggling against “power” pitchers, recording just a .121 average and a .582 OPS against those with high strikeout and walk rates.

Other areas where Soto seems to be trailing this season include a drop in barrel percentage and his performance against right-handed pitching.

His 14.0% barrel rate reflects a decrease of 5.7% compared to 2024, although it’s slightly above his career average.

Previously, Soto had crushed right-handed pitchers with a .987 OPS and .553 slugging over his career, but he’s only managing a .430 slugging and .771 OPS against them this season.

As one analyst mentioned, frustration can be a powerful detractor for players, especially talented ones like Soto who have seen early career success. Perhaps he feels the weight of contributing more to his team. After all, he is aware of the expectations and desires guidance and challenges—elements that truly define his character.