Israel is currently experiencing a significant political crisis that could potentially oust Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing coalition. A vital ally, one of the ultra-Orthodox parties, is indicating a possible withdrawal from the government and is considering backing an opposition-led effort to dissolve the Knesset next week.
Recent polling in Israel suggests that, if elections were held now, the Netanyahu coalition would likely lose its grip on power.
The core of the crisis revolves around longstanding tensions concerning military conscription exemptions for ultra-Orthodox men. While most Israelis face exemptions for three years (two years for women), Haredi men have historically avoided service for much longer. This situation is becoming increasingly intolerable, especially with the ongoing conflict in Gaza.
Amir Tibon, a political correspondent for Haaretz, pointed out that the dominant issues aren’t just about religion and national identity; the war in Gaza is pressing, and the coalition will be compelled to act.
According to estimates, there are around 60,000 ultra-Orthodox men of draft age in Israel.
Political correspondent Amit Segal from Israeli Channel 12 remarked that the current complications arose after the tragic events of October 7th. Before the war, many Israelis expressed dissatisfaction regarding the Haredi draft exemptions.
Segal also noted that while the Netanyahu coalition is setting its sights on the scheduled elections for October 21, 2025, early elections could become unavoidable if the ultra-Orthodox parties decide to exit. He believes it’s unlikely these parties will turn against the government outright since they are part of a beneficial coalition, but if they do leave, early elections seem probable.
In March, the Israeli Supreme Court declared the exemptions unconstitutional and instructed the government to address the situation. However, Netanyahu’s coalition, heavily reliant on ultra-Orthodox support, remains divided. The Haredi parties are pushing for new laws that would undermine the exemptions; without legislative changes, they have threatened to exit the coalition.
Segal elaborated that if these parties walk away, it could lead to the downfall of Netanyahu’s government. “The Prime Minister has seven weeks to secure the government before the Knesset takes a month-long break,” he explained.
Currently, there is a proposed bill from the opposition Yesh Atid party, led by former Prime Minister Yair Lapid, aiming for a vote set for June 11th, requiring 61 votes to pass.
In parallel, former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett has announced his return to politics with a new party, reportedly called “Bennett 2026.” Early indications from media polls suggest he could secure between 24 and 28 seats, potentially surpassing Netanyahu’s Likud party, which is projected to capture only 19 to 22 seats.
