Republicans Eye New Jersey State Capitol in 2024 Elections
This year, Republicans are making a serious effort to capture the New Jersey State Capitol. There’s a chance they might even influence areas where typically moderate Republicans hold sway.
On Tuesday, primaries will see a total of 11 candidates—six Democrats and five Republicans—going head-to-head. Governor Phil Murphy, who was first elected in 2017, is seeking re-election.
The primaries have highlighted pressing issues for voters, like crime, rising living costs, and property taxes. After eight years of Democratic leadership, there seems to be a growing fatigue among New Jerseyans.
One candidate to watch is Jack Ciattarelli, who is backed by Trump. Observers are curious to see if his association with the former president—often referred to as a “Midas touch” for some—can help push MAGA Republicans towards winning the governor’s office.
Ciattarelli, who previously ran for governor in 2017 and narrowly lost to Murphy in 2021, has openly welcomed Trump’s support, even though some former state officials labeled him as “100% MAGA.” According to recent polls, he’s appealing to about 44% of GOP voters.
Bill Spadea, a former conservative radio host who sparred with Trump supporters like Ciattarelli, is another contender, along with moderate state senator Jon Bramnick. Spadea is currently at around 18% in polls, while Bramnick lingers at about 8%, giving Ciattarelli a strong chance at securing the party’s nomination.
Hank Shenkopf, a long-time political operative in New Jersey, suggests Republicans have a genuine opportunity this election. He mentions that there’s disillusionment among voters, making a Republican win seem feasible.
Shenkopf also reflects on the Democratic scene, noting that if Murphy and his political circle were truly effective, his wife wouldn’t have struggled in her Senate campaign.
The leading Democratic candidate appears to be Mikie Sherrill, a U.S. representative with a background as a prosecutor and Navy helicopter pilot. She commands significant support, polling at 28%, while other Democratic candidates lag behind with numbers between 9% and 11%.
Shenkopf believes Sherrill is the key to defeating Ciattarelli due to her strong campaign style and focus on issues like corruption and governance.
This governor race is particularly notable given it’s happening alongside another major contest in Virginia. Some view it as a referendum on Murphy’s tenure, which has been marred by challenges like rising energy costs and immigration issues.
Despite New Jersey being a predominantly blue state—with over 2.4 million registered Democrats compared to just 1.6 million Republicans—Republicans have managed to win six out of the last eleven gubernatorial races. Shenkopf remarks on the unique rhythm of Jersey politics, suggesting that both Ciattarelli and Sherrill are well-positioned for a potential matchup in November.
Pollster John McLaughlin expresses optimism for Ciattarelli’s chances, especially considering his support from Hispanic voters. A recent poll indicates that Ciattarelli is now within single digits of the leading Democratic candidate, which is unusual in a state where Democrats have typically dominated this demographic.
Former President Trump has shown support for Ciattarelli, praising him as a “true champion” of the state and emphasizing tax cuts as a critical issue for voters in New Jersey.
Democrats are framing this race as a battle influenced by Trump and have expressed concerns about what they call “extremism” within the GOP primary.
The general election is set for November 4th, and with the stakes high, both parties are gearing up for a fierce competition.
