For the first time in nearly two decades, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has declared Iran in violation of its nuclear non-proliferation commitments.
A resolution passed on Thursday might set the stage for military action against Iran’s nuclear weapons initiatives.
According to the IAEA Governance Committee, Iran has committed “numerous failures since 2019” in providing necessary cooperation regarding undeclared nuclear materials and activities at several undisclosed locations.
The board noted that Iran’s lack of cooperation “clearly constitutes a violation of its obligations under the protective agreements with the agency.”
In a significant vote on this matter, only Russia, China, and Burkina Faso were in favor, while 11 countries chose to abstain and 19 supported the resolution.
Iran reacted strongly against the resolution, labeling it “completely political and biased” and announced plans to open another uranium enrichment facility.
The IAEA’s findings are particularly crucial, especially with traces of uranium discovered at three “undeclared” nuclear sites—essentially research facilities that Iran had concealed.
Evidence indicating potential violations at the Balamin, Maliban, and Takzabad sites first emerged in 2019 and 2020. Iran has been reported to have obstructed inspections and destroyed evidence while failing to answer queries.
United Nations nuclear monitors have criticized Iran for enriching uranium beyond levels suitable for peaceful purposes, like research or energy production.
Over the last five years, IAEA director Rafael Grossi has argued for diplomacy over conflict, though he has increasingly expressed frustration with Iran’s lack of cooperation. After visiting Tehran in early May, he voiced disappointment, citing “completely unhappy” interactions.
“It’s a very frustrating situation. We’ll keep working there, but they’re really limiting cooperation in a very unprecedented way,” he remarked in May, while still holding onto the belief that “diplomacy” is the way forward.
Grossi also submitted a quarterly report to the IAEA Committee president, which fueled speculation that diplomatic efforts might be cooling off. This comes as the Trump administration prepares for more discussions with Iranian officials in Oman this weekend.
Initial reactions to Grossi’s report indicated that Iran may have finally worn down the IAEA’s patience.
“I will continue to urge the US and Iran to make efforts using wisdom and political courage to reach a successful conclusion,” Grossi stated on Monday.
Amid escalating tensions, Iran has issued increasingly aggressive declarations, including threats against US military bases in the region. This raises concerns that the IAEA’s finding of non-compliance could be a precursor to military action.
The US has partially withdrawn non-essential embassy staff from Iraq, which underscores rising tensions. Additionally, the State Department has offered departure options for employees in Bahrain and Kuwait, while Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth approved voluntary departures for military dependents in the area.
On Wednesday, the British Maritime Trade Operations Centre cautioned about the rising military tensions affecting vessels in the Persian Gulf and surrounding regions.
European officials mentioned to the New York Times on Thursday that Israel is “seemingly preparing to launch a strike on Iran soon.”
Reportedly, left-wing media outlets are attempting to persuade President Trump that military action is necessary to halt Iran’s pursuit of atomic weapons. Although Trump once held on to the hope that negotiations could lead to success, his outlook appears less optimistic this week. He spoke with Netanyahu on Monday, though the White House has not disclosed any details of their conversation.
Formally, Iran requires a second declaration of non-compliance before the issue is escalated to the UN Security Council. However, it is evident that Iran is not intending to take steps to avoid further condemnation.
An Iranian official noted, “Iran is set to initiate a series of retaliatory nuclear measures once the resolution is adopted by the IAEA.”
“These measures may include reducing cooperation, imposing certain restrictions, activating advanced centrifuges, and removing surveillance cameras from the Isfahan facility,” the official added.
US and Israeli intelligence suggest that Iran has repeatedly misled the IAEA about its non-proliferation commitments, historically declared non-compliant back in 2005, leading to sanctions from the UN Security Council in December 2006.
