Planned Protests in Iraq Against Israeli Air Operations

Shiite factions in Iraq are gearing up for a large-scale protest aimed at Israel. Their demands include urging the Iraqi government to prevent Israeli aircraft from utilizing Iraqi airspace to target Iran.

In related developments, militia groups aligned with Iran have issued threats directed at American interests.

Ali Al Dafai, a high-ranking official from the coalition of Shiite political parties in Iraq, stated that efforts are underway for a “popular demonstration” to show support for Iran. He noted that smaller rallies have already occurred in Baghdad’s fortified Green Zone, where various diplomatic missions, including those from the US, are located.

Dafai emphasized the need for a “decisive attitude,” united in condemning Israeli aggression and advocating for the right to self-defense in support of Iran.

On another note, Iraq has lodged complaints with the UN Security Council regarding Israeli aircraft transiting Iraqi airspace to carry out attacks on Iranian targets. The Iraqi Foreign Ministry expressed that such actions are grave violations of Iraq’s sovereignty and pledged to urge the UNSC to address these transgressions.

Dafai also called on the Iraqi central government to invest in an “advanced air defense system” to mitigate future violations of its airspace. He suggested that if the US is unwilling to supply these systems, Iraq should explore options from other nations. Iraq recently entered into a significant $2.8 billion agreement to acquire anti-aircraft missiles from South Korea.

There has been little development in Iraq’s air defense capabilities since the US-led coalition ousted Saddam Hussein in 1991. Baghdad’s options appear limited, consisting mainly of “non-deterrent” responses or issuing firm but ineffective diplomatic statements expressing its discontent over the usage of its airspace for attacks.

The intricacies of Iraqi airspace are heightened by the presence of the US-led coalition against ISIS. Some Iraqi citizens speculate that the US may be coordinating with Israel, and there is a desire for American assistance in safeguarding Iraq’s airspace.

According to high-ranking security officials, efforts are being made to keep Iraq distanced from the Israel-Iran conflict. This includes various Iranian-backed militia groups showing restraint, particularly since the onset of the Gaza conflict on October 7.

Several Iraqi militias have stated their intention to target US troops, including the influential Kataib Hezbollah, known as a significant Iranian proxy. The group has vowed to act decisively against US forces if it perceives any American intervention favoring Israel against Iran.

These militias have demonstrated both their capacity and willingness to strike at American assets in Iraq. While there may be some regret over consequences from an attack, their readiness to respond remains evident.

Some analysts suggest that if conditions in Tehran deteriorate significantly, Iranian agents may conduct operations. However, there’s uncertainty about how desperate the situation must become for such measures to be enacted, given the delicate balance of power and the potential repercussions on Iran’s military decision-makers.

AFP has noted that Iraq’s “silent diplomacy” aims to keep Shiite militia groups in check while seeking US intervention to limit provocations in its airspace. Following recent elections, Shiite factions in Iraq are looking to consolidate their influence by increasing their parliamentary presence.

A militia commander remarked to AFP, “Sometimes, the sword must be kept in a sheath, but this doesn’t mean we will relinquish our weaponry.”