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CBO: ‘Significant bill’ would increase deficit by $2.77 trillion over ten years

CBO: 'Significant bill' would increase deficit by $2.77 trillion over ten years

Home Depot Co-Founder Discusses U.S. Economy and Political Landscape

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The Nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has unveiled a new dynamic analysis indicating that the Republican “Big Beautiful Bill” could raise budget deficits beyond previous estimates, projecting an increase of over $300 billion.

The CBO’s findings suggest that the version passed in the House of Representatives would lead to a total increase of $2.77 trillion over the next ten years, as their analysis factors in how the proposed policies might influence the economy.

Projected revenue cuts, exceeding $3.5 trillion due to tax reductions, contribute significantly to this net deficit, which surpasses $774 billion in spending cuts anticipated under the proposed legislation.

Interestingly, while the CBO estimates that economic output could mitigate the primary budget deficit by $85 billion over the next decade, rising interest rates are expected to increase interest payments on federal debt forecasts by $441 billion during the same period.

Jamie Dimon’s Cautionary Notes on Debt

Treasury interest rates are predicted to rise, with an average increase of 14 basis points over the next decade. Furthermore, inflation is expected to rise slightly by 2030 compared to the CBO’s January 2025 baseline.

According to the CBO, actual GDP, excluding inflation effects, could grow by about 0.5% over the period from 2025 to 2034. Additionally, a decline in marginal income tax rates could improve incentives for work, resulting in a 0.6% increase over the next decade compared to earlier baselines. Changes to Medicaid, SNAP, and student loan programs through the bill may also boost labor supply, albeit to a lesser extent.

National Debt Tracker

As of June 17, 2025, the national debt stands at over $36 trillion, placing an increased burden on American taxpayers.

CBO forecasts suggest that the public share of U.S. debt as a percentage of GDP is expected to grow by 7.1 percentage points by 2034. This calculation includes the added costs associated with servicing the increased national debt. It’s worth noting that the dynamic analysis used does not factor in the service costs related to the higher deficit resulting from the proposed bill, owing to longstanding cost estimation protocols.

Still, estimates imply that when those service costs are taken into account, the overall deficit could hit $3.4 trillion over the next decade.

Budget estimates indicate that U.S. debt may approach 156% of GDP, illustrating a significant rise in citizen debt. Under the current CBO baseline without the GOP Act’s impacts, the budget deficit is projected to increase from about 6.2% of GDP in 2025 to 7.3% by 2055.

The CBO currently anticipates a fiscal deficit of roughly $1.9 trillion for the fiscal year 2025.

Earlier cost estimates for the “Big Beautiful Bill,” using static scoring methods, suggested that the deficit could reach $2.4 trillion over the next decade under the existing House bill version, without accounting for the economic impacts of the proposed legislation.

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