Gold Price Forecast

Gold prices have been on a downward trend recently. As traders assess where the gold rates might be headed and how to navigate the market, here’s some insight from Jateen Trivedi, a VP Research Analyst at LKP Securities.

During the trading session on June 20, gold opened significantly lower, reflecting a broader bearish trend seen in Comex Gold. In the domestic market, MCX Gold August Futures (05AUG2025) started around £98,722 after hitting a low of £98,705, indicating sustained selling pressure.

Gold Price Outlook

From a technical perspective, the current market setup suggests a “rising sales” strategy targeting the £99,000-£99,150 range for a few reasons:

• EMA Resistance Level: The peripheral EMA is positioned at £99,150, with the 21-day EMA at £99,350. Prices are significantly below both averages, signaling a short-term downtrend. Any intraday rebounds to these levels could attract renewed sales.
• Bollinger Bands: The current price action indicates that it remains below the Bollinger Band, typically a sign that the bearish momentum is strong. So far, there haven’t been indications of a return to average levels.
• Pivot Points: The pivot level from the previous day is around £99,200-£99,350, acting as a significant resistance zone. If prices can’t recover this area, the bearish outlook will likely strengthen.
• RSI (14): The relative strength index is hovering around 32.75, which is close to being oversold, but there are no clear signs of a bullish reversal yet. This implies the potential for further weakness before a significant shift occurs.
• MACD: The MACD indicator remains strongly negative, with a MACD line of -34.71 and a histogram that indicates increasing bearish momentum. The signal lines are well below zero, supporting an ongoing downward trend.
• Price Actions and Gap Analysis: The gap-down opening today signifies failures in the recent trading range observed from June 17-19. This indicates a strong interest in selling, possibly influenced by international gold price trends and a robust dollar index.

Conclusion: Traders are recommended to adopt a selling strategy as long as prices stay below £99,150-£99,350. The short-term target may be around £98,300, and if bearish sentiments intensify, that could drop to about £98,000. To guard against unexpected market surges, a stop-loss could be set above £99,500.