WASHINGTON – The recent attack on Iran’s nuclear facility has delayed the Islamic Republic’s progress towards nuclear weapons by about two years, according to US and Israeli officials. However, experts maintain that Tehran remains highly motivated to pursue bomb development.
On Tuesday morning, President Trump asserted that Tehran would never be able to “rebuild” its nuclear program. Yet, Iran’s atomic energy chief responded that plans are already in place to restore sites that were bombed, including Fordow, Isfahan, and Natanz.
Iran’s atomic energy organization leader, Mohammad Eslami, told the state-run Mehr News that they are prepared for potential US and Israeli airstrikes aimed at these facilities. Assessing the full extent of the damage may prove challenging, especially since Iran might restrict access to the impacted locations.
Several nuclear physicists and national security analysts, however, believe that the strike, along with Israel’s “Operation Risingglaion” targeting key Iranian scientists and military figures, has extended the timeline for Tehran’s nuclear ambitions significantly—by months or even years, as opposed to just days or weeks.
Andrea Sticker, a deputy director at a non-proliferation advocacy organization, remarked that Iran would require extensive time to restore its options for building nuclear weapons. “Even so, Tehran may still try to utilize what it has to further its nuclear aims,” she added.
Sticker also suggested that the US and Israel might need to consider further military action to address the ongoing threat or, alternatively, push Iran to agree to a comprehensive deal for dismantling its nuclear weapons program.
Where is the uranium?
Israeli officials express worry that Iran could reorganize its nuclear program, though there is a prevailing sense that the immediate threat has been lessened. Scott Feltman, a vice president of an Israeli organization supporting Jewish communities in the West Bank, noted a long-standing concern voiced by Israeli Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu, who has been raising alarms for the past 20 years.
Feltman indicated that if Netanyahu truly believed the threat would return shortly, he might not have agreed to a ceasefire. Yet, there seems to be skepticism about trusting the current Iranian regime.
Images from recent satellite observations showed numerous cargo trucks outside the Fordow site, raising suspicions about whether Iran had evacuated nuclear material prior to the US strike. Some analysts suspect those trucks might be obstructing access points to mitigate damage from US bunker bombs.
If Iran were able to extract about 400 kg of uranium enriched to 60%, it could shorten the timeline for weapon development significantly, according to nuclear physicist Steve Nelson. He explained that being enriched beyond 20% facilitates reaching weapon-grade levels, making weapon creation simpler.
Meanwhile, the Iranian parliament’s National Security Committee has suspended cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency indefinitely, complicating external oversight of Tehran’s nuclear activities.
IAEA Director General Chihulafaer Grossi commented on the uncertainty surrounding Iran’s nuclear intentions and capabilities, emphasizing the need for clarity on whether Iran will attempt to rebuild its program.
What remains?
Calls for additional strikes against Iran’s nuclear capabilities may intensify, especially after a recent intelligence assessment suggested that the US attack did not entirely dismantle Iran’s centrifuge operations. White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt contested the credibility of those reports, arguing that the overall impact of the strike on Tehran’s program was limited.
Iran Eviyatar, author of a book on regional security, noted the Israeli perspective that while Natanz might have sustained severe damage, the situation at Fordow remains less clear. Some analysts suggest that even if the above-ground infrastructure was targeted, deeper facilities could withstand such strikes.
Grossi added that prior to the Israeli airstrikes, the discrepancy in Iranian capabilities was notably large. Some analysts believe Iran might consider transferring some uranium to groups like Hezbollah, or possibly exploring the creation of a radiological dispersal device, also known as a “dirty bomb.” However, this path carries considerable risk.
“There’s a significant concern regarding whether Tehran would pursue such a course, as creating potential panic could trigger stronger US actions aimed at eliminating Iranian leadership,” a source remarked. The future, it seems, may involve a more cautious Iran, one that seeks to hold onto its enriching capabilities while navigating its complex survival strategies.
