Outlook on Iranian Regime Change Post-Israel-Iran Conflict
Following the intense 12-day conflict between Israel and Iran last month, a significant moment has emerged—the first direct attack by Israel and the US on Iran’s nuclear facilities and military assets. Opposition leader Mariam Rajabi has asserted that a shift in Iran’s regime is “realistic,” suggesting a future with democratic governance.
In a recent interview, Rajabi, who represents the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), expressed optimism about a potential shift in Iran’s political landscape. This coalition brings together various Iranian opposition groups, prominently the Mojahedin-e Khalq (PMOI/MEK). With rising uncertainties about the country’s future, she commented on the growing discontent that could lead to a governmental change.
“We are closer to this goal than ever,” she stated, pointing to the country’s ongoing economic collapse and deep-rooted social unrest within the government itself.
“It’s time for a change of government.”
When prompted about the feasibility of regime change in the current Iranian environment, Rajabi replied that such change is “not only realistic but long overdue.” She noted that for over 40 years, Iranians have sought to overthrow the regime, highlighting the tragic loss of more than 100,000 lives due to political repression.
Opposition leaders have depicted the regime as facing profound challenges, including economic devastation. Despite Iran’s substantial oil and gas reserves, the situation is dire.
“Inflation exceeds 40%, food prices are skyrocketing, and essential goods are becoming increasingly scarce,” she explained, painting a grim picture where half of men aged 25 to 40 are unemployed, and countless university graduates have left the job market.
Adding to these issues, the country’s major dam reservoirs are alarmingly low at just 7% capacity, leading to an acute energy crisis.
“This is a nation rich in fossil fuels,” Rajabi remarked.
Leaders of the opposition credited the increasing pressure on the regime to an expanded network of resistance units linked to PMOI/MEK, which have conducted over 3,000 operations against government forces this year alone.
“The Iranian people have all the components necessary for change,” Rajabi concluded. “What we need now is strong international policies targeting the regime: cutting financial and political support, imposing extensive sanctions, and recognizing the Iranian people’s right to challenge their oppressors.”
No foreign intervention needed—allow the Iranians to lead their own change
Rajabi sought to alleviate concerns in Washington regarding US involvement in another costly regime change initiative, explaining what she calls the “third option.”
“These fears are understandable, especially given the track record of past failures,” she acknowledged. “Our ‘third option’ strictly avoids foreign military engagement, focusing instead on internal resistance and government change driven by the Iranian people.”
She emphasized that while the Iranian government might not instigate conflicts, it has been a significant driver of unrest across the region. “Around 90 million Iranians have made it clear they desire change and have paid dearly for it,” she noted, referring to the regime’s interference in neighboring countries like Iraq and Yemen.
“What they seek is for the world to recognize their right to oppose this dictatorship and dismantle it,” she added.
A Vision for Uprising
When asked about the nature of the regime change process—whether it would involve armed conflict—Rajabi stressed the unity among various Iranian groups transcending ethnic and sectarian lines.
“Iranians are united in their desire to overthrow this regime,” she asserted. “This important task will materialize through organized resistance and a national uprising.”
Rejecting fears of ethnic conflict, Rajabi portrayed Iran as historically connected through shared culture, emphasizing that “differences do not fuel internal strife” and that all Iranians identify as such, regardless of their backgrounds.
Reflecting on the 2022 uprising, she shared how diverse ethnic groups like Arabs, Kurds, and Persians united in their chants for regime change, voicing their shared aspirations.
Opposition figures maintain that the presence of structured alternatives like the NCRI prevents Iran from sliding into chaos post-regime. They view the current government as a catalyst for instability and violence in the region.
MEK: The Core of Resistance
Discussing the role of PMOI/MEK in opposing the regime, Rajabi proclaimed it as “the backbone of organized resistance in Iran,” emphasizing its extensive experience gained over decades of struggle against both the Shah and the current administration.
MEK has been instrumental in exposing the government’s secretive nuclear endeavors, identifying key sites and making numerous disclosures related to the regime’s nuclear ambitions over the years. However, Rajabi highlighted the ideological battle they wage against the regime’s oppressive beliefs.
“MEK stands in stark opposition to religious extremism, promoting a version of Islam that is tolerant and democratic,” she explained. “Their work represents a significant challenge to the regime’s narratives over the past nearly five decades.”
She pointed out MEK’s focus on empowering women, noting that they hold vital roles within the organization, reflecting the movement’s values.
Message to the US Leadership
Rajabi shared specific messages directed at US President Donald Trump and the American public about the necessity of change in Iran.
“Our message is straightforward. We’re advocating for a firm approach towards the Iranian regime,” she stated. “Such policies should acknowledge the Iranian people’s right to self-determination, rejecting both religious and monarchical authoritarianism, and recognizing their struggle against the IRGC as legitimate.”
“I hope this consensus evolves into a feasible strategy,” she added.
She asserted that the current circumstances present a rare opportunity, suggesting that “since 1979, the Iranian regime has generated significant terrorism and instability, but now it’s at its weakest point. The Iranian people and their resistance are closer than ever to enacting change.”
Rajabi emphasized that her movement doesn’t seek American funding or military support, arguing that “regime change in Iran is the only path to lasting peace and stability in the region—addressing threats like nuclear arms and exacerbated tensions.”
She noted, “This aligns with House Resolution 166, supported by 227 bipartisan members of Congress.”
Khamenei’s Succession Crisis: Opportunities Arise
Recent reports reveal that amid the recent conflict, the 86-year-old Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, isolated during the war, has designated two potential successors.
“The succession crisis poses one of the most serious challenges to the Iranian regime,” she mentioned. “The constitutional framework was tailored to Khamenei’s interests.”
Rajabi predicts that naming a successor may backfire spectacularly, compounding the existing internal rifts and crises of legitimacy. “Such actions render the regime more vulnerable, particularly in a society poised for an uprising that could trigger widespread social upheaval,” she warned.
A Vision for Democratic Iran
When asked about the possibility of a peaceful future for Iran, Rajabi expressed optimism, but clarified that true peace would only come once the regime collapses.
“For decades, we’ve underscored that the Iranian government’s role is at the heart of regional wars, crises, and terrorism,” she said. “Hence, sustainable peace with Iran can only materialize after this regime falls.”
The NCRI’s vision for a democratic Iran is framed around cooperation and respect for international law, focusing on non-interference in other nations’ constituencies.
“A democratic Iran will emerge as a robust partner for peace and stability,” Rajabi pledged.
Why NCRI is Positioned to Lead Change
In addressing why her movement is particularly equipped to facilitate Iran’s transition to democracy, Rajabi cited the NCRI’s unique blend of experience, organization, and international backing.
“With over 60 years of battling both monarchy and dictatorship, the MEK has cultivated a cadre of seasoned leaders, rendering it the regime’s primary adversary,” she articulated.
Rajabi described the NCRI as “the longest-standing political coalition in modern Iranian history,” maintaining independence funded entirely by its members and supporters.
She also noted the movement’s growing international credibility, backed by thousands of lawmakers on both sides of the Atlantic.
“We don’t pursue power for its own sake; our objective is to restore it to the Iranian populace,” she concluded, presenting a defined transitional plan featuring a six-month interim government followed by elections and the drafting of a new constitutional framework.
According to the proposed roadmap, “sovereignty will be handed to representatives within the Constitutional General Assembly, tasked with appointing new governmental bodies and drafting a new constitution.”
