Poll Shows Division on Trump’s Key Policy Bill

Voters are pretty much split on what President Trump calls his “big, beautiful bills.” A recent Harvard Cap/Harris poll, released on Monday, revealed that 44% of respondents actually support the main Republican policy bill, while another 44% are against it. Interestingly, 12% of those surveyed aren’t quite sure where they stand.

Some aspects of the bill do seem to resonate with the public. For instance, 76% favor expanding health savings accounts and boosting support for farmers, ranchers, and disaster recovery efforts. Additionally, a substantial 69% appreciate the proposal to reduce federal spending by $1.3 trillion, and about 67% like the idea of establishing a permanent child tax credit of $2,200 per family.

However, not everything in the bill is winning over voters. For example, the plan to eliminate taxes and registration for firearm silencers drew only 31% approval. Moreover, 43% opposed a proposed 5% tax on international remittances, and the increased state and local tax (SALT) deduction cap to $40,000 for those earning less than $500,000 is also met with skepticism.

As for the bill’s broader impact, respondents are divided on whether Trump’s proposed policies would ultimately help or harm the economy. While 48% believe the economy would improve, a slightly larger 52% think it would decline.

Both Republicans and Democrats appear to be using the GOP policy bill in their mid-term messaging, though Democrats are harshly critiquing the cuts to Medicaid included in it. Meanwhile, Republicans point to tax cuts as a significant advantage.

This division over a key segment of Trump’s agenda raises some important questions about how voters perceive the legislation as the party heads into the mid-2026 period. It seems, well, like the usual split we’ve seen lately. As Mark Penn, chair of the Harris poll, noted, while attitudes toward the bill are essentially divided down the middle, there are certainly popular tax cuts within it.

The Harvard Cap/Harris poll was conducted from July 6 to 8 and surveyed 2,044 registered voters. This research is a joint effort between Harvard University’s Center for American Political Studies and Harris’ polls.

This study utilized an online sample taken from the Harris panel, weighted to align with known demographics. The margin of error is 2.2 percentage points.