A recent poll indicates that Elise Stefanik, the upstate MP, holds a significant lead over other Republicans in the upcoming virtual primary against Governor Kathy Hochul next year.
The data shows that approximately 64% of Republicans are backing Stefanik, while only 8% support Rep. Michael Lawler from Hudson Valley. Additionally, 6% of respondents favor Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman, but 22% are undecided on their candidate for the 2026 gubernatorial race.
Ryan Mars, a co-pollster, remarked, “Stefanik is not just known; she’s loved among likely candidates.” He emphasized that over the last few years, she’s become a prominent figure in both state and national politics, representing a shift in New York’s political landscape.
Mars expressed surprise at Stefanik’s popularity, seeing her lead over Lawler as surprisingly wide—by 56 points. “I thought Lawler might score in the mid-20s if things were closer,” he mentioned.
He pointed out that this stage of the election cycle typically leaves many voters undecided, which is common. “However, it seems like voters have already made up their minds in New York—Elise Stefanik appears to be the clear Republican frontrunner for governor.”
While Stefanik, Lawler, and Blakeman are considering their chances against Hochul, none have formally launched their campaigns yet.
Stefanik’s name recognition significantly outweighs that of Lawler and Blakeman. Polls reveal that 64% of Republicans hold a favorable view of her, compared to just 25% for Lawler and a mere 17% for Blakeman. It’s worth noting that a large portion of voters, about 66% for Lawler and 72% for Blakeman, either don’t know them or hold no opinion.
Mars attributed Stefanik’s popularity partly to her status as Chair of the House Republican leadership, a position she has maintained for several years. She was also nominated by Trump to be the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, although that selection was rescinded earlier this year.
Stefanik has been at the forefront of various issues, including addressing anti-Israel sentiments in higher education and related anti-Semitic incidents.
Another recent poll suggested that Lawler might have a better chance of defeating Governor Hochul in the general election. Trump recently endorsed Stefanik, hinting at his support for her potential run.
Lawler has been actively campaigning, visiting multiple counties and engaging with local GOP leaders who expressed their willingness to support him in a potential challenge against Hochul.
Some Republican leaders are also backing the notion that Lawler, representing the North Country’s diverse areas, could be more competitive against Hochul than Stefanik.
Lawler’s team argued that their candidate has the strength needed for the general election. “The main battle is against Kathy Hochul; data indicates that Mike Lawler is the only Republican capable of winning.”
While Lawler, a recent entrant into Congress, has been vocal on various issues, including traffic congestion fees in Manhattan and advocating for tax credits for New Yorkers, the dynamics of the race are still unfolding.
Polling conducted by Co/Efficient will occur from June 18-20, using mobile texts and landline interviews, with a margin of error of 3.76%.
