Alaska’s Senate Race Heats Up with Polling Results

A couple of recent polls regarding Alaska’s U.S. Senate race suggest that it’s shaping up to be quite a close contest, with the ranked-choice voting system likely influencing the final results significantly.

Back in 2020, Alaskan voters opted for the controversial ranked-choice voting system, a change that was backed by groups with financial ties to left-leaning organizations. One notable supporter was Alaskans for Better Elections, funded by a nonprofit based in Denver that promotes electoral reforms favoring leftist candidates.

According to polling released on Thursday, a voter survey from AARP, conducted by Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research, indicates that former Democratic Representative Mary Peltola is currently ahead of Republican Senator Dan Sullivan, with 46 percent to 41 percent. After accounting for the ranked-choice voting, Peltola’s lead expands slightly to 53 percent against Sullivan’s 47 percent.

Conversely, a separate poll by Co/Efficient, also released on Thursday, shows Sullivan taking a narrow lead over Peltola, at 49 percent to 46 percent.

The current political landscape has Republicans occupying three of the four available spots on the general election ballot, a situation some attribute to perceived manipulations during the state’s primary elections.

Interestingly, a left-wing activist who shares the name with the two-term senator has entered the race and mentioned in a New York Times article that he has consistently voted for Democratic nominees in the previous three presidential elections and did not support Sullivan in his earlier campaigns. He has expressed his support for Peltola in her previous runs for the U.S. House and has contributed to her campaign, along with other Democratic candidates.

Before entering the Senate race, Peltola secured a position at a lobbying firm following her two terms in Congress, along with her chief of staff. During her time in the U.S. House, she notably missed 40 percent of votes in the summer of 2024, which raised questions among some Alaskan voters regarding her commitment to representing their interests.

The AARP poll reveals a significant disparity in approval ratings, showing Democrats with a -14 point disapproval rating compared to -7 for Republicans. In contrast, independents appear to favor Peltola significantly, especially in a direct matchup against Senator Sullivan.

On a more positive note for Republicans, the Co/Efficient survey shows Sullivan enjoying a stronger personal brand compared to Peltola. Sullivan’s favorability stands at 46 percent, with only 45 percent disapproving, whereas Peltola’s approval is at 41 percent, against 47 percent disapproving.