Despite a gradual decline in inflation, many Americans are entering the holiday season with economic apprehensions. As Thanksgiving approaches, it serves as a national barometer for how the public views the president’s handling of the economy and whether they believe his pledges around affordability are coming to fruition.
This uncertainty influences consumer behavior during the holidays. People seem hesitant about making significant purchases but are inclined to spend on smaller items they deem worthwhile. Joan Hsu, the chief economist at the University of Michigan’s Consumer Research Institute, is observing this cautious balancing act closely.
“From our discussions, it’s clear that consumers view this as a really bad time for big buys, mainly due to rising costs and high borrowing rates,” Su noted. “But it’s likely they’ll still spend on lower-cost items. Yet, given the general lack of confidence in the economy right now, people are probably going to be searching for the best deals,” she added.
This clash between improving economic data and ongoing public distrust presents a complex challenge for Trump. He returned to the White House promising affordability but is now facing skepticism from voters about whether he can deliver.
Seventy-six percent of voters currently assess the economy negatively, an increase from 67% in July and 70% at the end of the previous administration. Voters tend to attribute the economic issues to Trump more than they do to Biden, often feeling that Biden’s policies have adversely affected them.
At the same time, Trump’s approval regarding his economic policies is at an all-time low, while his overall approval ratings have hit record highs for disapproval—even among some of his staunchest supporters.
In recent elections, Democrats have capitalized on affordability discussions, and it seems to have paid off. In states like Virginia, New York, and New Jersey, voters feel pinched by economic policies, particularly concerning housing costs. Democratic candidates have pointed to Trump’s prior economic policies as exacerbating these affordability issues.
They’ve campaigned on promises to reduce energy prices, enhance affordable housing, and safeguard middle-class wages. Analysts suggest this resonates with the current public sentiment, implying that parties that focus keenly on economic relief for voters often find success.
“It seems they made a significant error early this year. The president campaigned on reducing inflation but then enacted policies that, arguably, led to inflation,” Scott Linthicum, from Cato’s Herbert A. Stiefel Center for Trade Policy Research, commented.
“Americans aren’t naive. They can connect the dots. If someone claims to lower prices only to shift towards price hikes, people will point fingers,” Linthicum added.
For Trump, the real measure may not lie in economic statistics but rather in the perceptions of everyday Americans. If the anticipated relief isn’t materializing, this Thanksgiving could highlight just how elusive affordability remains.
