Michael Lind writes: provocative commentThis is partly in response to recent books by John Giudice and Louis Texeira.Where have the Democrats gone?Mr. Lind would have us believe that Democrats will do better in November than the naysayers suggest. Contrary to Texiera Giudice’s assertion that the Democratic Party has lost its traditional working-class base and may no longer thrive among racial minorities, perhaps the Democratic Party is enjoying a tailwind. It seems that there are. It is said that the only reliable Republican voters are white evangelicals and Mormons. And numbers in both groups are declining compared to other demographics.
Lind also correctly believes that blacks and Jews are the most loyal Democratic constituency, and that these loyalties are as strong now as they ever were. If Donald Trump won about 31% of the Jewish vote (largely thanks to Orthodoxy) and more than 10% of the black vote in the last election, it is likely that he will win this year as well. Among Hispanic voters, Trump is said to be doing less well than he did in 2020.
Republicans should not be overconfident about their chances of victory. It may also be very difficult to push black and suburban women to the right.
Moreover, the Democratic Party’s support among “secular” Americans, especially those with left-wing social views, means Biden will easily defeat Trump. In fact, Lind says the only reason we’re giving Trump a chance is because Biden is a very elusive candidate. But that doesn’t matter, given the Democratic Party’s overwhelming electoral strength.
The reason I’m responding to this analysis is because I received a note that Lind and I are on the same page. Neither of us is considered hopeful of a Republican victory. Moreover, we both believe that the alliance of the woke left, the media, and urban blacks is too strong for the Trump campaign to overcome.
For those who believe Lind and I are making the same predictions, let me assure you that they are wrong. Unlike Lind, I believe it is inevitable that the Democratic Party is on its way to victory in November, barring some very dirty tricks. Or, it could be that the Democratic Party’s share of the vote among certain groups is fixed. What I’ve been arguing is that Republicans shouldn’t be overconfident about their chances of victory. I’ve also argued that it may be very difficult to push black and suburban women to the right.
At this point, Trump Will do better among Hispanics More than 2020. may also enter His unwavering pro-Israel stance and the Democratic Party’s large number of pro-Hamas voters made him popular among non-Orthodox Jewish voters.
Trump also appears to be increasing his share. black male voters By tackling both the burgeoning crime wave and economic problems. I’m very skeptical of Republicans’ ability to do well in urban black neighborhoods, but they might make at least a modest gain here. Overall, I think Mr. Texeira and Mr. Judith, both left-wing Democrats, give a more accurate picture of their party’s electoral situation than Mr. Lind.
But if Democrats can make abortion and other social issues work to their advantage among certain voting blocs, Lind may not be completely out of line.
The problem here is that inflation, border incursions, and high crime seem to be overshadowing the wedge issues, and that Republicans at the national level are worried that the abortion issue has become electorally detrimental to them. , leaving the abortion issue alone, at least for now. The social left has a clear propaganda advantage over its opponents in mobilizing people in support of unrestricted abortion rights. But unless they effectively exploit this issue, convincingly portray Republicans as MAGA terrorists, and millions of mysterious ballots turned up under supposedly suspicious circumstances, Democrats may have a hard time winning. unknown.
What makes Lind’s presentation unnecessarily disturbing is his blatant disdain for socially traditional Christians. Who are the Republicans he complains about who are “trying to repeal the New Deal” and who take “radical positions on abortion”? With this hyperbolic fit, Lind exposes his own leftist politics. He also overuses the word “secularization,” which to Lind seems to be a symbol of social acceptability. In his case, that may be proof that someone isn’t trying to go back to the Eisenhower era.
It is clear that letting go of traditional religious beliefs influences political choices, but it does not determine everything when other factors come into play. Even people who don’t attend church services might vote for Trump because they don’t like the skyrocketing crime rate or the Democratic Party’s discrimination against white men.
Voters who are religiously skeptical may also be disappointed by Biden’s efforts to overwhelm us with expensive and destructive illegal aliens who are already being recruited as new Democratic voters.
Lind may be underestimating Trump’s support among white Catholics.according to pew research survey, in 2020, white Catholics who attended Mass at least every month gave Trump 63% of their vote. Even white Catholics who don’t attend Mass gave him 53%. Mr. Biden has had problems with devout Catholics, who are understandably appalled by his radical moral positions. He’ll probably lose a lot of that depth in November.
