a Far-right winds are blowing across the Atlantic. The rise of the populist right in Europe predates Donald Trump's re-election, but far-right parties, leaders and governments across Europe are excited about his impending return to power and rising political star Elon. It is gaining momentum due to Mr. Musk. There is some hope that President Trump's inauguration may have a unifying effect on Europe, and I believe that this may be the case.
President Trump's ludicrous threat to annex Greenland by force even before his second term began, in clear disregard for international law, sovereign borders, and the United States' North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO); prompted a swift and unanimous response from France, Germany and Spain, leaders of the countries said. As you can imagine, they are appalled and support Denmark. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said President Trump's comments caused “incomprehension” among European leaders.
But in areas such as trade, technology and space, a more nationalist Europe is far more likely to be divided rather than united in the face of a predatory divide-and-conquer America. And this is exactly what the Trump-Musk axis seems to be aiming for.
The second wave of nationalism and populism in Europe has been in full swing for more than two years, after a brief lull in the first year of the pandemic and the war in Ukraine. Since late 2022, far-right parties in Sweden have either entered the government or supported it from outside. Finland and Croatia. In Italy, far-right Giorgia Meloni leads a right-wing coalition government, and in the Netherlands, a technocratic prime minister heads the executive branch, but the far-right Freedom Party, led by Geert Wilders, is a major shareholder.
This suggests that this trend will continue into the new year. In Austria, far-right Freedom Party leader Herbert Kickle is tasked with forming a government, and new elections could further strengthen the far-right even if talks between his party, the FPÖ, and conservatives fail. expensive.
Romania's presidential election late last year was dramatically annulled by a court after evidence of massive interference via social media in support of far-right candidate Karin Georgescu emerged. However, the re-enactment is scheduled to take place later this year, and support for Georgescu may still rise again.
In the Czech Republic, elections will likely return populist Andrej Babiš's Action for Dissatisfied Citizens (Ano) party to power. This would lead to a realignment of the Czech Republic with Viktor Orbán's illiberal regime in Hungary and Roberto Fico's Slovakia. Perhaps even in France, if Emmanuel Macron's latest attempt to form a stable government fails, Marine Le Pen's National Assembly bid for power may become unstoppable.
Far-right parties exist in various forms in Europe and are still far from representing a disabling minority within the EU. But they have grown in power and numbers, become more interconnected within EU institutions, and are increasingly influencing the centre-right and becoming increasingly effective at subverting and erasing the cordon that has kept them out of power for decades. It's increasing.
Against this backdrop, Trump 2.0 and Musk entered the fray, making no secret of their political preferences in Europe. As Germany's general election approaches, Musk has publicly praised the neo-Nazi Alternative for Germany and hosted a live talk on X with its leader Alice Weidel to promote it. Musk appears to consider his derogatory comments about centre-left leaders Keir Starmer and Olaf Scholz a blood sport.
But not all European leaders are as critical as the Germans, French, and Spanish. Mr. Orban and Mr. Meloni have refrained from criticizing Mr. Trump and Mr. Musk, receiving only praise in return.
Meloni had dinner at Mar-a-Lago on January 4th. praised by President Trump As a “great leader” who “took Europe by storm.”
Europe has strong concerns about President Trump's return, fearing the withdrawal of the United States from European security, including Ukraine, the transatlantic trade war, and the weakening of multilateralism. As Europeans worry about President Trump, they are trying to figure out who could potentially build a bridge across the Atlantic. The truth is that there is no one, and certainly no one, who can whisper in President Trump's ear to ensure that the EU's interests are protected.
Some candidates have already been disqualified on either side of the Atlantic. Prime Minister Orban has fancied himself as Trump's whisperer and has railed against Hungary's six-month EU presidency, which ended in December, in order to position himself as an intermediary between Russia and Ukraine. But while Mr. Orbán may have Mr. Trump's ear, he is alienated within the EU and is unlikely to recover his reputation. Other European leaders, including Mr Macron and Poland's Donald Tusk, may also take up the challenge. However, while Mr. Macron boasts a relatively good relationship with Mr. Trump, he is extremely weak domestically. Mr. Tusk is in a much stronger position domestically and will serve as rotating president of the European Union for the first six months of Mr. Trump's term. he also boast Defense spending reaches up to 4.7% of GDP. However, when Tusk was president of the European Council, their personal chemistry was not great.
This is why so many people pay attention to Mr. Meloni. Mr. Meloni has gloated about his relationships with Mr. Trump and Mr. Musk, and is not alienated in Europe like Mr. Orban. But Mr. Meloni is a nationalist, and nationalist leaders will always use their political capital with President Trump to advance national interests. In Meloni's case, he will seek to soften the blow from Washington related to Italy's large trade surplus with the United States. Unimpressive defense spending Equivalent to 1.5% of GDP.
She is not going to put Europe's common interests ahead of her, and certainly not her national interests. And given that personal chemistry alone is unlikely to appease Trump, Meloni may have to give quite a bit in return for a win. These concessions are not necessarily bad for Europe. For example, it would make sense for both Italy and Europe to spend more on defense or buy more US liquefied natural gas.
But other moves may be more problematic. Potential deal of €1.6 billion A leak emerged this week between Italy and Musk's SpaceX, which provides communications services to Italian agencies including defense through Starlink technology. Starlink is safe, but placing yourself in the hands of a foreign company owned by the richest man on earth poses significant security risks, given how such dependence can be weaponized. Masu. It is paradoxical that such an agreement could be concluded by a sovereignist leader. If this continues, there is a possibility that it will indirectly get in the way of Iris.2a €10 billion multi-orbital constellation of 290 satellites led by a consortium of European players (including Italian companies).
Anxiety has led to a spate of searches in Europe for people whispering about President Trump. But such numbers can end up being ineffective at best and a Trojan horse at worst. Those with Trump's ear are far more likely to advance Trump's interests in Europe than European interests in the United States. Rather than worrying about Mr. Trump, Europe would be best to come together and worry more about itself.