Syrian rebels force president bashar al assad He fled Syria for his life on Sunday. Russian President Vladimir Putin recognizes Assad regime exile For humanitarian reasons. After 53 years of oppression, first begun by his father Hafez al-Assad, the end has finally come for the brutal Assad family regime in Syria.
Iran and Russia are currently on the outside of Damascus, monitoring the inside. Both countries face the loss of key operational bases.
Russia iswithdrew part of the navyFrom Tartus in the Eastern Mediterranean, a strategic port with a warm climate. Moscow has used this facility to project and maintain Russian influence throughout the Middle East, Africa's Sahel region, Sudan, and Equatorial Guinea.
Similarly, the Russian Air Force is preparing to withdraw assets from the United States. Khmeimim Air Base Syria – Moscow's main airfield. used to attack Syrian rebels Civilians in densely populated areas have supported the Assad regime for the past 13 years.
Iran's losses are even greater. Syria has been given sanctuary where the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps can fund, supply and train proxy forces of Hamas and Lebanese Hezbollah in Damascus, Lebanon, Gaza and the West Bank in the war against Israel. Now that safe no longer exists.
It is now clear that Tehran and Moscow overreached in Middle East issues on October 7th. arab countries They underestimated Israel before intending to destroy the Jewish state and are now paying the price.
A ceasefire and peace agreement are no longer the goals of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Rather, he became fully motivated to eliminate the immediate threat of Hamas and Hezbollah, and their enabler Syria, as quickly as possible.
Next on the list is Iran. The mullahs are well aware of this fact.
If you think about regional characteristics, kaleidoscopechanges are spreading across the Middle East. The fall of the Assad regime was the latest of many secondary and tertiary consequences of Hamas' October 7 terrorist attack on Israel.
The collapse of Syria is a significant loss for the Iranian government. Nor can we take solace in the victory of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the Sunni Islamic extremist group that overthrew the Assad regime. The group's leader — Syria's presumed interim leader Abu Mohammad Al Jolani – have said“We are open to friendship with everyone in the region, including Israel. We have no enemies other than the Assad regime, Hezbollah and Iran. What Israel has done against Hezbollah in Lebanon is a big deal to us. It was helpful.”
But only time will tell. Recent posts by Islamic rebels celebrating the fall of Damascus video “This is just the beginning, and I promise you that next time we will take Jerusalem and liberate all Gazans.” Meanwhile, Israel continues to attack targets in Syria “Stop the weapon” [from] It fell into the hands of extremists, who now occupy all strategically located areas. mount hermon In the Golan Heights.
Iran has no power projection forces. It relies on proxies, drones, and ballistic missiles. However, after two failed direct attacks on Israel, April and OctoberAnd given that its air defenses have been shattered by Israeli surgical strikes, Iran is now at risk and vulnerable.
For the survival of their country, the Iranian regime nuclear weapons. And while the Biden administration continues to try to prevent Israel from attacking Iranian nuclear facilities, the Israelis did just that on October 26, destroying a working nuclear facility. Nuclear weapons research facility In Parchin, Iran.
According to Axios, the attack “destroyed sophisticated equipment used to design explosives that could surround the uranium in nuclear devices, severely damaging Iran's efforts to restart nuclear weapons research.” That's what it means.
Iran also has reason to fear January 20, when President-elect Donald Trump, a supporter of Israel, will be inaugurated in Washington. islamic republic of iran planned the murder President Trump continues to pose a threat to security in the Middle East even before his election.
Yemen's Houthi rebels are the only remaining Iranian proxy capable of attacking Israel, interfering with commercial shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, and posing a threat to the United States in the region.
In November they Two US Navy destroyers were targeted. They were carrying eight unmanned aerial vehicles, five anti-ship ballistic missiles and three anti-ship cruise missiles as they passed through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. The attack was not successful.
On December 1st, the Houthis launched Two Palestinian hypersonic missiles aimed at Israel. Jerusalem has responded to previous Houthi attacks. July and septembertargeted a facility in Yemen's Hodeidah port that it claimed was “used for importing munitions, military supplies, and oil from Iran.”
Iran desperately needs new proxies, proxies that can provide it with some leverage to threaten U.S. interests in the region. They may have found an agent in al-Shabab. Terrorist organization based in Somalia. Al-Shabaab, an official affiliate of al-Qaeda, adheres to “the promotion of sectarian violence against those who disagree with al-Qaeda's global anti-Western jihadist narrative and its extreme religious interpretation in the Horn of Africa.” I am doing it.
The connective tissue will be Yemen, but the situation is complex.
The Houthis are Zaidi Shiites. al-shabab is a Sunni Islamic terrorist organization that is traditionally ideologically opposed to Shiite Islam. However, they have common enemies in the United States and Israel, which makes them strange bedfellows.
Weapons provided to al-Shabaab pose a threat to the Somali government, the U.S. military, and commercial ships transiting the Bab al-Mandab Strait and Gulf of Aden from the East African coast.
In June, U.S. intelligence agencies learned of arguments by the Houthis that: provide weapons U.S. officials described the incident as a worrying development that could further destabilize the Horn of Africa. The Houthi rebels are believed to have signed an arms deal with al-Shabaab, but it likely would not have happened without Iran's approval.
For al-Shabaab, it is new weapon source This includes drones and ballistic missiles, which are much more sophisticated than current weapons.
It concerns the Prime Minister of Somalia Hamza Abdi BarreThey met with senior Iranian officials in Baghdad in July to persuade the Houthis, through their Iranian backers, not to support al-Shabaab against the Somali government.
The Somali government is at risk, as are the 480 U.S. troops stationed there and 4,000 others assigned to Somalia. Combined Joint Task Force – Horn of Africa Headquartered in neighboring Djibouti.
Al-Shabab will become Iran's dangerous and effective proxy in the Horn of Africa. In addition to confronting Khamenei's nuclear weapons program, the incoming Trump administration must maintain maximum pressure and situational awareness against Tehran's machinations in the Horn of Africa.
Colonel (retired)Jonathan SweetHe served as an Army intelligence officer for 30 years.mark tothHe writes about national security and foreign policy.
