The Australian Dollar slipped against the US Dollar on Thursday, hitting a key resistance level influenced by the 50- and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs). This decline came as robust US economic data underscored the economy’s strength, possibly heightening the prospects for interest rate hikes. Currently, AUD/USD is sitting at 0.7020.
AUD/USD drops from the SMA levels, with a break below 0.7032 indicating potential further declines
On Wall Street, the session closed lower, reflecting a negative sentiment in the market. Recent US data indicated a 3.4% annual growth in Q3 2026, outperforming expectations which had been set at 3.2% and a previous 2.2%. Additionally, the Core PCE, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, rose by 3.1% in September, matching predictions and increasing slightly from 3% the month before.
The data included Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending October 24, which fell from 195K to 194K, against expectations that they would rise to 199K.
Following the data release, the AUD/USD continued to drop below the 100-day SMA at 0.7032, suggesting further downside. Interestingly, investors reduced their expectations for a hawkish Fed stance, with current odds sitting at 76%, down from 84% just a day earlier, as reported by Prime Terminal.
This shift occurred amid rising hopes for diplomatic progress in the Middle East. As the Asian session began, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US Oil benchmark, experienced a slight decline of about 0.13% to $102.71.
US Treasury yields also saw a decrease, with the 10-year yield falling by 6.5 basis points to 4.907%. This move was partly attributed to the Federal Reserve’s decision to maintain current rates, alongside comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, who is focusing more on operations rather than on guiding monetary policy.
Warsh mentioned that eight meetings per year is the right pace for the FOMC, but in 2027, there would only be seven monetary policy decisions, followed by six in 2028.
In Australia, Thursday’s agenda lacked any significant data aside from a speech from RBA Governor Bullock, where she noted that inflation remains excessively high, acknowledging an alignment of CPI with upward inflation risks.
Looking ahead to Friday, the Australian economic calendar will include the annual Producer Price Index (PPI) for Q3, which was previously recorded at 3.6%. Meanwhile, the US schedule includes speeches from San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem.
AUD/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook
In the daily analysis, AUD/USD is currently at 0.7024, maintaining a bearish outlook as it trades below the recent SMA levels, specifically at 0.7069. The pair is drifting back toward the lower end of its recent trading range, with the Relative Strength Index (14) at 51.33 indicating a slight bullish momentum, though it’s not strong, especially given the ongoing downward pressure.
On the upside, initial resistance is noted at the convergence of the 50/100/200-period SMAs around 0.7069, followed by a horizontal resistance near 0.7198. A broader downward trend stemming from 0.8015 adds further resistance to any rallies. Conversely, the price action remains supported by a series of upward-sloping trend lines drawn from the 0.68–0.69 range, suggesting that while a bearish bias prevails below these moving averages, there might be buying interest in the rising support band before any significant negative shifts in the daily structure.
Australian Dollar Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of the Australian Dollar (AUD) against other major currencies this week, with the AUD showing the strongest performance against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.29% | -0.06% | 0.46% | -0.39% | 0.19% | 1.17% | -0.07% | |
| EUR | -0.29% | -0.38% | 0.12% | -0.76% | -0.18% | 0.82% | -0.42% | |
| GBP | 0.06% | 0.38% | 0.44% | -0.38% | 0.20% | 1.26% | -0.07% | |
| JPY | -0.46% | -0.12% | -0.44% | -0.82% | -0.32% | 0.75% | -0.62% | |
| CAD | 0.39% | 0.76% | 0.38% | 0.82% | 0.53% | 1.52% | 0.31% | |
| AUD | -0.19% | 0.18% | -0.20% | 0.32% | -0.53% | 1.00% | -0.45% | |
| NZD | -1.17% | -0.82% | -1.26% | -0.75% | -1.52% | -1.00% | -1.26% | |
| CHF | 0.07% | 0.42% | 0.07% | 0.62% | -0.31% | 0.45% | 1.26% |
This heat map illustrates percentage changes of major currencies against one another. The base currency is displayed in the left column, while the quote currency is shown in the top row. For instance, selecting the Australian Dollar from the left column and moving horizontally to the US Dollar, the percentage change represented in the corresponding box indicates AUD (base)/USD (quote).
