- Time is running out for President Joe Biden to shore up support from key voting blocs that supported him by wide margins in battleground states last time.
- Recent polls in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and North Carolina show that Mr. Trump leads the group.
- “So the outcome of this election is that the story of just one of these people is strong enough to take care of the problem, but the other one is not. , I think it’s cutting across regions,” Republican strategist Scott Jennings, a veteran of numerous campaigns, told the Daily Caller News Foundation.
President Joe Biden is losing support among key voters in key battleground states as he approaches a showdown with former President Donald Trump in November, according to recent polling data.
Biden has received dismal polling results in recent months among key voting blocs that were key to the 2020 election, and his support remains largely strong. delay He ranks second only to President Trump in national polls and polls in battleground states. Recent polls in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and North Carolina show that Biden’s lead with independents, young people, black voters and Hispanics has narrowed since last time, or that some groups have It shows that Mr. Trump is in the lead.
“In close states, every vote counts. It’s usually the independents who win,” Ron Forcheux, president of the nonpartisan polling firm Clarus Research Group, told the Daily Caller News Foundation. Ta. “These state polls reflect Biden’s weaknesses in national polls.” (Related: Poll after poll finds voters feel much better about President Trump than Biden)
Arizona Emerson College investigation Wednesday’s results showed Trump leading Biden 53% to 47% among independents. The same pollster showed Trump with a 6-point lead over the group. nevadaas well as 8 points pennsylvania.
marist investigation An article published Wednesday for North Carolina suggested that Mr. Trump beat Mr. Biden 52% to 46% among independents. The former president also holds a 4-point lead over Biden in Michigan. according to According to a Quinnipiac University study released on March 14th.
Marist in Georgia poll An article published Wednesday found that Mr. Biden leads President Trump by just 1 point among independents. In Wisconsin, the president’s lead over his group is just 2 points. according to According to an Emerson College study released Thursday.
In 2020, Biden held a 4-point lead over Trump among independents. north carolina6 points nevada and michigan8 points pennsylvania9 points arizona and georgia12 points wisconsin.
Recent polls show Trump also leads Biden among young voters in Georgia and Michigan, while the former president has a narrower lead in North Carolina, Nevada, Arizona and Wisconsin than he did in 2020. It continues.
According to the aforementioned poll, Trump has a 5-point lead among 18- to 29-year-olds in Georgia, and a 5-point lead among those under 35 in Michigan. In 2020, Biden led Trump by 13 points in Georgia and 24 points in Michigan among 18- to 29-year-olds.
Trump’s approval rating among 18- to 29-year-olds is down just 1 point in North Carolina, about 5 points in Wisconsin, 9 points in Arizona, and 12 points in Nevada. Last cycle, Biden led Trump by 17 points in North Carolina, 23 points in Wisconsin, 31 points in Arizona and 30 points in Nevada.
Veteran Republican strategist Mark Weaver argued that the polls show Biden is in “more of a re-election struggle than any president since Jimmy Carter.”
“These numbers suggest Joe Biden will be limping through a dark room full of political mousetraps, and likely to trip over most of them between now and November. It’s expensive,” Weaver told DCNF. “If he leans too much towards Hamas supporters, he will lose more independents and more Jewish voters. If he stands firmly against Israel, he will lose more Muslim voters in Michigan and Minnesota. If he curries more favor with Antifa and Black Lives Matter activists, he will draw the ire of older voters and lose more young voters. We will lose important central areas like Scranton, Pennsylvania.”
“He is unpopular with many groups of voters who are typically friendly or interested in blue, but he has more ways to lose those voters than gain them,” Weaver said. added.
ROME, GA – MARCH 9: Republican presidential candidate and former US President Donald Trump leaves the stage at the end of his campaign rally at the Forum River Center. (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)
Polls show that Biden still maintains a significant lead over Trump in black communities, but the lead is smaller in Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina, Wisconsin and Nevada than last time.
According to the poll, the president has a 68% to 19% lead in the precinct. michigan69% to 31% pennsylvania71% to 29% wisconsin75% to 24% georgia77% to 23% nevada and 79% to 20% north carolina.
In 2020, Biden led Trump among Black voters, 92% to 8%. wisconsinsimilarly from 92% to 7% north carolina, pennsylvania and michigan.Black voters also supported Biden, 88% to 11%. georgia and 80% to 18% nevada.
“In most Southern states, a Republican candidate who wins 15 to 20 percent of the state’s black vote is guaranteed an overall majority,” said Republican polling analyst and North Star Opinion Chairman. John McHenry, vice president of research, told DCNF. “There is simply no plausible path to victory for Democrats who have lost so many black votes.”
Polls in some battleground states, particularly Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Nevada, show Biden’s support is declining among Hispanic voters as well.
The president held a 56% to 45% lead in Pennsylvania polls, but he won the last battleground state by a 42-point margin among Hispanics. Similarly, the same group previously favored the president by 23 points in Wisconsin, where the poll showed Biden with just a 4-point lead over Trump.
In Nevada, where Biden won the group by 26 points in 2020, the poll found him leading Trump by just 4 points.
Mr. McHenry told DCNF that Mr. Biden’s “only real chance to change course is for the economy to recover in a way that is tangible to working-class voters.”
Scott Jennings, a Republican strategist and veteran of numerous campaigns, said that Biden’s biggest obstacle is that voters believe he is “less able” than Trump to solve issues such as the economy and foreign policy. I believe that this is considered “too much”.
“I don’t see him doing anything that would change that perception. In fact, I see him doing things that would make things worse,” Jennings told DCNF. Ta. “So the results of this election alone mean that one of these stories is strong enough to solve your problems and the other one is not. I think it cuts across layers and regions. Once that perception takes hold, it’s difficult to reverse it. And I think they’re caught in the middle of it now.”
Trump won Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin in 2016, but lost them all to Biden in the next election. The former president held North Carolina in both cycles, and Democrats accomplished the same in Nevada.
Biden is currently ousted by RealClearPolitics (RCP) average He is supported in every battleground state, and nationally he has not led Trump since early September 2023.
Both men have secured enough delegates for their respective parties’ nominations after the March 12 election campaign, and are preparing for a rematch in just eight months.
Neither the Biden nor Trump campaigns responded to DCNF’s requests for comment.
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