President Biden’s re-election campaign is maneuvering in Florida, hoping to swing the state Republican-leaning and wrest former President Trump’s new home state from Republicans in November.
It will be an uphill battle to win back the Sunshine State, but Biden’s campaign says a restrictive new state law could make the abortion issue on the ballot a boost for the state and other Democrats. thinking.
They also note Democrats’ victory in Florida as recently as 2012, when President Obama endorsed Biden and defeated Republican Sen. Mitt Romney of Utah. broke.
A win in Florida will be a tough fight, but the campaign is not taking any state for granted in what now appears to be a close election nationwide.
“It would be a big mistake to dismiss Florida as a long-term goal,” said Michael Starr Hopkins, a Democratic strategist. “Those who underestimate the resilience and determination of Floridians do so at their own peril. Our campaign has deep roots in communities across this state, and we are seeing an unprecedented surge of support. I am witnessing it.”
Abortion has been a viable issue for Democrats since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in 2022, and it will be a major issue in Florida.
When the Florida Supreme Court ruled that a six-week abortion ban approved by the state Legislature could go into effect this month, it also allowed a ballot measure to go to voters in the fall. The measure would allow voters to consider whether to protect access to abortion up to the 24th week of pregnancy.
The Biden campaign and the Democratic Party hope that this measure will be a major force in driving more pro-Biden voters to the polls in the fall, helping them win Florida’s 30 electoral votes.
The Biden campaign releases a memo saying it will reverse Trump’s investments in his home state, and Vice President Harris is scheduled to travel to Jacksonville to campaign on Wednesday, the same day the six-week abortion ban goes into effect. is.
Her visit comes a week after Biden visited Tampa for a campaign event that also focused on abortion rights. Florida’s new law shortens the time limit for legal access to abortion from 15 weeks to six weeks.
Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg says the Biden campaign has good reason to think this issue could make a big difference in Florida.
“Republicans are running a six-week curfew in Florida, and the polls are in the low 20s,” he said. “Normally political parties don’t support issues that poll this badly.”
A recent Emerson College poll found that 57% of Floridians surveyed believe a six-week abortion ban is “too strict,” and 42% would support a ballot amendment to enshrine abortion protections in the state constitution. I replied that I would vote yes.
In the 2020 election, Trump defeated Biden in Florida by more than 3 points.
But even before the new abortion law was enacted, Mr. Biden had not given up on the state, where his campaign spent money in 2023 and this year.
Trump easily won Florida’s Republican primary, making him the state’s leading candidate. Ron DeSantis was elected governor of Florida in 2018 while running as a strong ally of Trump. Mr. DeSantis was strong enough to be considered a potential rival to Mr. Trump in the Republican primary after being easily re-elected in 2022, but the challenge ruffled Mr. Trump’s feathers and ended after the Iowa caucuses. .
Trump and DeSantis reportedly met over the weekend to discuss the possibility of a joint fundraiser and DeSantis’ efforts to support Trump.
Polls in Florida show Biden leading Trump.Trump had a 9 point lead in the recent election. FAU/Main Street Research Pollby 13 points Emerson College Poll 6 points lead in the survey from WMNF Radio St. Pete Poll.
Ford O’Connell, a Florida Republican strategist, called Democrats’ strategy in the Sunshine State “basically like throwing the kitchen sink against the wall and seeing what sticks.”
“I think there’s a bad taste in the mouth of a lot of Democrats, national Democrats, because of how far Florida is,” he said.
Some Democrats are less optimistic about Florida’s return to glory.
“Florida often feels like Charlie Brown and Lucy and the Democratic football. This is a place where we have hope, but it’s hard to win in a state where you haven’t won in a long time,” said Democratic strategist and Al.・David Thomas, a former aide to Vice President Gore, said:
John Labombard, former communications director for Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.), agreed that winning Florida will be a challenge.
“Despite the voting initiatives taking place in Florida, we as Democrats are especially concerned about this reverse coattail effect because we are putting policy issues before voters that they are very likely to agree with. “I think we can get a little too excited. Our preference for that policy doesn’t necessarily translate into increased support for Democratic candidates elsewhere on that ballot,” he said. “We’ve seen it many times.”
Still, Thomas said it’s important for Democrats not to eliminate Florida in a close election.
“We know it’s going to be a close election, so I think it’s important for the Democratic Party to expand its playing field as much as possible at this stage of the election,” he said. “You don’t want to completely write off important states with huge numbers of voters and electors.”
Julia Manchester contributed to this report.
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