Team Trump is fighting not only the Democrats and the stock market, but also the huge, counterproductive spending that money has learned, as Joe Biden unleashed in the final months of his presidency.
It was an attempt to goose the economy and the market. So people could forget that Kamala Harris was an empty policy lawsuit and was elected last fall.
Good news: It didn't work for Harris.
Bad news: The bill is scheduled.
During the campaign, sleepy Joe's whispers of Harris-related spending have occasionally leaked out of the Trump campaign. But now that Trumpians are in the White House, they're starting to tally it.
Numbers range from $300 billion to $250 billion, depending on how large-scale measurements and classifications are measured. Rob Bart Van Batenberg of the influential Bear Trap Market Report says his analysis supports those estimates. Wall Street executives who delve into the issue say that the Videnistas were able to put paper on paper over spending, but instead of issuing longer-dated bonds that would cause a surge in interest rates, selling stock markets and perhaps recession, they could roll over short-term debt.
Even if the bill is big, everyone agrees that what the bloated federal government doesn't have is a lot of money. You can't beat debts forever as investors become smarter into the game and continue to demand higher interest rates to lend government money.
Team Trump talks about the money they have a big hole in and it takes time to dig out. They still go beyond short-term debt, as they don't want to disrupt the interest rate environment. Meanwhile, they have deposited the bank with the bank for cuts by Elon Musk's Doge team. We are making sure that interest rates are not blown to levels that can cause a deep recession due to all our debts and expenditures.
Numbers don't lie. A fiscal deficit approaching $2 trillion (by comparison, Trump's last deficit before Covid was $98.4 billion) and $37 trillion debt are unavailable. It is either Doge and other cuts that lead to short-term pain, or a massive surge in future interest rates that could lead to a recession.
As I wrote, the market focuses on short-term pain and of course tariffs. Bond trading shows a recession, even if the economy is likely to slow down before Trump takes office in late January. Stocks are messing up tariffs. Because they will be converted into surcharges for imports that will lead to retaliation measures from the target countries and lead to inflation and the possibility of recession.
Additionally, they believe that Trump de do cuts in government spending, including the end of a last-minute rampage to elect Trump de Harris, will slow economic growth.
Right or wrong, Team Trump sees the glass half full. They believe that money from customs duties can pay off deficits and debts. Doge could cut $500 billion from the deficit in the long term, which is good for growth, as well as planned tax cuts and deregulation.
If Harris was elected, interest rates would have been blown away as he planned to double Biden's ridiculous spending.
Though a decade of transactions could signal a recession, it also indicates the need to issue less debt.
The 10-year yield yield on consumer rate prices was headed towards 5% as bond traders stole the spending Biden was making to elect Harris. Currently, we are heading below 4%.
Joe Biden was asleep for most of the presidency – when he wasn't spending money he didn't have. He's not heard much from his retirement now, but if he could wake up from his extended sleep, someone might want to ask him why electing Kamala Harris for him is worth the spending and the hole he left in Trump.
