Poll Indicates Bruce Blakeman is Gaining Ground on Kathy Hochul

New York’s Republican gubernatorial candidate, Bruce Blakeman, appears to be in a stronger position to challenge Governor Cathy Hochul than his predecessor, Lee Zeldin, according to a recent poll that has heightened the stakes in this competitive race.

A Siena College poll from early August shows Hochul leading Blakeman by a slim margin of 10 points, with 49% of likely voters supporting her, compared to 39% for Blakeman. This is noteworthy because it places the Nassau County executive in a favorable position compared to Zeldin, who ran against Hochul four years ago.

Last year, as Hochul wrapped up her first year in office, she held a significantly larger lead over Zeldin of 14 points, 53% to 39%. Ultimately, she won that election by a narrow six-point margin.

“With less than three months until Election Day, Hochul’s 10-point lead over Blakeman, while notable, is still just shy of the critical 50% threshold,” said Siena pollster Steven Greenberg. “The contest is shaping up to be quite competitive,” he added.

The gubernatorial election will take place on November 3rd. In other statewide races, Hochul’s lead over her opponents is less pronounced. For instance, two-term Democratic Attorney General Letitia James is ahead of her Republican opponent, former federal prosecutor Saritha Komatireddy, by 18 points. Meanwhile, Democratic State Treasurer Tom DiNapoli holds a 23-point lead over Republican candidate Joseph Hernandez.

The poll also suggests that Hochul’s support among women and Black voters is strong. Among women, she leads Blakeman by 19 points (56% to 37%), while male support seems more split. However, Blakeman faces a significant deficit among Black voters, trailing Hochul by a staggering 60 points.

In heavily Democratic New York City, the incumbent governor commands a vast lead of 45 points over Blakeman. On the other hand, in the suburbs, Blakeman has a slight edge, leading by eight points (49% to 41%), and both candidates are nearly even in northern parts of the state.

Interestingly, Blakeman has garnered considerable backing among Catholics and 42% of Jewish voters, a demographic that typically supports Democrats. It’s worth noting that Blakeman himself is Jewish.

Despite these signs of potential support for Blakeman, the polls disclose areas where he still needs to gain ground. For instance, a majority of likely voters (51%) believe Hochul would perform better in addressing affordable housing, while only 35% support Blakeman for that issue. Similarly, respondents generally trust Hochul more with making life affordable for New Yorkers by a margin of 48% to 41%.

When it comes to public safety, voters are somewhat divided: 47% think Hochul will manage public safety better, whereas 44% favor Blakeman.

Additional polling from Republican-leaning sources indicates that the race might be even tighter than the Siena poll suggests. A survey last month for a pro-Blakeman super PAC reported him trailing by just four points (47% to 43%). Another conservative poll from early last month found Hochul leading by only 6 points (47% to 41%).

The Siena College poll surveyed 811 likely voters from August 3rd to 6th and has a margin of error of approximately 4.2 percentage points.