Despite repetitive headlines, crime in New York City isn’t truly “going down,” although the business community seems to cling to this idea, according to On the Money.
Business leaders highlight declines in certain crime rates to suggest that the city is a safe environment for employees and entrepreneurs. That sentiment has some merit—homicides have decreased nearly 50% over the past 16 years and are down around 34% compared to just two years ago.
Also, shootings are down roughly 27% from two years ago and have fallen over 50% since 2012, the last year of Mayor Mike Bloomberg’s administration.
However, the picture isn’t entirely rosy. Reports of violent assaults have surged nearly 77% over the past 16 years, and there’s been about a 1% rise from just two years back. Traffic crimes are escalating as well, up 7% since 2010 and 1.2% over the past two years. Although grand theft has dropped, it remains 22% higher than under Bloomberg.
More disturbingly, rape incidents have climbed by 4.6% in the past year alone, and hate crimes have jumped over 6%.
A prominent lawyer from a major Manhattan law firm recently brought this contradiction to light. Having served in the Justice Department under George W. Bush, he stated, “There are also two glaring problems in this city: an epidemic of rape and hate crimes, also known as criminal anti-Semitism. In the last two years, rape has risen more than 30%, and since 2010 it has gone up 73%.”
“Sure, the murder rate has seen a significant drop, as have shootings,” he added. “But these figures only tell a fraction of the entire narrative.”
I can understand why city leaders might adopt an optimistic view of crime statistics. It’s tough to operate a business in an environment led by a mayor like Zoran Mamdani, who seems eager to implement excessive taxes for an expanding welfare state.
Finding a silver lining in crime statistics can also be a strategy to attract businesses to areas where sidewalks are less crowded with homeless individuals or where families can dine without fear of being robbed.
Yet, a deeper examination of the numbers indicates that business leaders might just be searching for some positive angle in a situation where New York continues to be viewed as a risky place to live and work.
Although the focus is often on economic issues, crime has historically posed a significant obstacle to the city’s economy. In the 1970s, a spike in crime led many tax-paying middle-class New Yorkers to abandon the city for the suburbs, exacerbating financial troubles rooted in budget mismanagement.
Conversely, Rudy Giuliani’s crime-fighting initiatives during his tenure, which persisted into Bloomberg’s era, contributed to a revival of business in New York. A recent study from the Citizens’ Budget Committee noted that rather than fleeing, taxpayers are migrating back into the city.
Steve Fulop, head of the Partnership for New York, the city’s main business advocacy organization, remarked, “Beyond the statistics, business sentiment regarding public safety is fairly positive, reflecting the efforts of Commissioner Tisch and her engagement.”
It’s clear that NYPD Commissioner Jessica Tisch is doing commendable work, even with significant challenges, such as a mayor who views sidewalk homelessness as a right and a district attorney who believes in less law enforcement as a means to tackle crime. Not to mention, the recent efforts of President Trump’s appointee as Lower Manhattan District Attorney, Jay Clayton, also aim to deal with violent crime in the city.
Regardless, the data speaks volumes. New York City remains a hazardous place, and as business owners ponder the risks, they may increasingly question, “Is it worth the cost to operate here?”
