The cattle market experienced a significant decline on Friday, reacting strongly to the upcoming ‘Cattle on Feed’ report. Many traders seem more worried about a potential strike at the JBS Greeley plant in Colorado rather than the current strength of the spot market, where JBS is still actively buying slaughter cattle. While negotiations are ongoing and might suggest resilience, there’s a buzz of negativity around the strike possibility. Interestingly, both producers and packers didn’t show much alarm over the strike; in fact, producers turned away from packers’ bids while packers, in contrast, increased their bids throughout the day. Analysts, however, remain convinced that the strike is a done deal.
With futures prices hovering around all-time highs, there’s a hesitance among traders, likely fueled by the fear that someone might pull the plug before the party ends. The feeder index provided a surprise twist; despite futures prices tumbling on Friday, it kept reaching new heights. Right now, futures are trading at a discount, although they hit record highs in October. According to the recently released Cattle on Feed report, suppliers are paying a premium for cattle as inventories tighten. Some of my customers are noting that it seems producers are getting more assertive about breeding, which is pushing replacement heifer prices upward. Could this lead to even tighter supplies as those heifers vanish from the system? There are also indications of producers moving feed cows to market earlier than usual. If that’s true, it might create tighter supply conditions down the line.
Diving into April’s pricing, we saw a decrease from a high of 243.675 to a low of 241.275, settling at 242.00. This drop tested support at 242.075, with the rising 8-Day Moving Average (DMA) at 241.225. If April live bulls can sustain their position, they might rattle up against Thursday’s high of 244.125, possibly reaching the next resistance point at 245.125. On the flip side, the 13-DMA support is currently at 240.375, with further support at 239.25 and then 238.125. For March feeder cattle, the numbers shifted dramatically from a high of 371.125 to a low of 366.575, settling down at 368.025. This fluctuation took prices past the support level of 369.375, testing the rising short-term moving average support at around 367.875. If feeder cattle hold steady here, we might see them retest the resistance at 369.375, with 375.075 as the next point of interest.
As of February 19, 2026, the feeder cow index reached 377.37.
Turning to boxed beef cutouts, the selection cutout increased by 1.53 to 366.70, while another selection cutout rose by 0.95 to 360.74. The pick/select spread has widened to 5.96 with a total load count of 106.
In estimated slaughter numbers for Friday, there were 89,000 cases reported, a rise from 86,000 the previous week but down from last year’s 108,174. This Saturday is expected to see zero slaughters, significantly lower than last week’s 1,000 and last year’s 14,979. So far this week, an estimated 516,000 animals have been slaughtered, which is under last week’s total of 541,000 and last year’s figure of 564,737.
According to the USDA report LM_Ct131, cash deals negotiated on Friday in Nebraska were moderate with decent demand. In Nebraska, dressed purchases were trading at $388.00, nearly $6.00 higher than the previous week. However, there haven’t been enough live purchases to properly gauge the market. The last live market price in Nebraska last week was between 245.00 and 246.00, mostly settling at 245.00. The Western Corn Belt is seeing strong demand, with trade being moderately active. Compared to the last week, live purchases in the Western Corn Belt increased by 1.00-2.00, sitting between 245.00 and 247.00. The dressed purchase sat at 388.00, marking a 6.00-8.00 rise against last week’s light activity.
Southern Plains trade was somewhat sluggish due to moderate demand. The last established market price in Texas last week was between 246.00 and 248.00, with most settling at 248.00. Similarly, in Kansas, the last established market had live buys at 248.00 to 249.00, mainly around 248.00.
Current USDA figures show live cattle cash transactions ranging from 240.00 to 249.00 and from 380.00 to 388.50 on a clothed basis.
The U.S. cattle feed reduction rate stands at 2 percent. As of February 1, 2026, feedlot inventories with a capacity of 1,000 or more animals totaled 11.5 million, reflecting a 2% decrease since February 1, 2025.
In January, the number of animals in feedlots totaled 1.74 million, which is 5% lower than in 2025. The net placements reached 1.68 million head. In January alone, there were various transfers with 360,000 cows and calves weighing less than 600 pounds, and groups of varying weights totaling over a million. The number of fed cows was about 1.63 million, marking a 13 percent decline from 2025.
To give some perspective, as of January 1, 2026, around 82.7 percent of all cows and calves being fed in the U.S. were in feedlots with 1,000 or more animals. This is a slight increase from 82.5 percent the previous year. In 2025, feedlots of the same size accounted for about 87.1 percent of total cows sold from all U.S. feedlots, a minor drop from 87.2 percent in 2024.
