JPMorgan Chase’s CEO, Jamie Dimon, recently discussed the stock market’s rally, inflation concerns, and his “cautiously pessimistic” perspective on the economy during an appearance on “Mornings with Maria.”
Business leaders in the U.S. seem to be losing confidence in the country’s economic outlook. This sentiment has shifted dramatically from being optimistic to quite pessimistic in just a three-month span.
The CEO Confidence Measure, compiled by the Conference Board and The Business Council, surveyed 141 CEOs and found a significant drop in confidence scores—from 59 in the first quarter to 47 in the second. A score below 50 indicates more negative than positive outlooks.
Only 15% of these CEOs believe the economy has improved over the past six months, a sharp decline from 39% in the previous quarter. Conversely, 47% think it’s worse now, compared to only 8% earlier.
Moreover, 40% foresee deteriorating economic conditions in the next six months, compared to just 13% who shared this view previously.
“CEO confidence fell back into negative territory in the second quarter of 2026, a reversal from the optimism seen earlier,” stated Dana M. Peterson, chief economist at the Conference Board. “CEOs are indicating that current economic conditions are significantly worse than they were six months ago and anticipate further declines in the near future.
Peterson also noted a decline in CEOs’ assessments regarding both the current state and future outlook for their industries since the last quarter.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released final GDP figures for the fourth quarter, revealing a modest growth rate of 0.5% during October, November, and December, which was below the anticipated 0.7% growth, according to economists surveyed.
Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, previously mentioned, “While 2025 experienced a full-year growth of 2.1%, it will be viewed as a ‘what could have been’ year.” He warned that the outlook for 2026 appears increasingly grim, with geopolitical tensions in the Middle East heightening existing economic challenges. Factors like rising inflation and slow growth in real disposable income will likely hinder economic progress.
This economic slowdown is influencing CEOs’ strategies, prompting many to adopt austerity measures, slow hiring, and even prepare for potential layoffs.
About 31% of those surveyed expect to downsize their workforce in the next six months, which is a concerning shift compared to the 28% who plan to expand hiring. Wage increases, too, have slowed, primarily hovering in the 3% to 4% range. Additionally, over half of the CEOs reported facing challenges in certain hiring areas.
Roger W. Ferguson Jr., vice chairman of the Business Council and chairman emeritus of the Conference Board, remarked, “We’re experiencing a ‘low jobs, low layoffs’ economy.” He observed a slight decline in the number of CEOs aiming to expand their workforce within a year, with a corresponding slight uptick in those looking to reduce staff.
Ferguson also pointed out that CEOs are increasingly worried about cyber risks, with nearly two-thirds identifying it as their primary concern this quarter. Geopolitical issues, risks associated with AI, and emerging technologies continue to dominate discussions, alongside rising concerns about supply chain stability and energy-related risks.
