China Resists Pressure for Trilateral Nuclear Pact Talks

On Thursday, China’s Foreign Ministry stated that Beijing will not yield to growing international pressure to engage in discussions with the United States and Russia regarding a new trilateral nuclear weapons agreement to succeed the now-expired New START treaty.

During a press conference, Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Lin Jian expressed that China views the expiration of the New START treaty as “regrettable,” emphasizing its importance for “global strategic stability.” He noted widespread concerns about the implications for international nuclear arms control and global nuclear order following the treaty’s end.

Lin mentioned that while China is under no obligation to engage in arms treaties, it does not plan to take part in negotiations for a new agreement. He pointed out that China’s “defense nuclear strategy” and its “no first use” policy might exempt it from these discussions.

Additionally, he commented on Russia’s suggestion that both Russia and the United States should adhere to the treaty’s core restrictions. Lin hoped the U.S. would respond positively to this proposal, aiming for a responsible resolution regarding the treaty’s expiration and a prompt resumption of strategic dialogue with Russia.

China has stated that its nuclear arsenal is “on a completely different scale than the United States or Russia.” However, this assertion has faced skepticism, given the growing divergence between China’s claims and available objective data.

According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), China has been increasing its stockpile at a rate of about 100 nuclear warheads annually since 2023, now possessing at least 600 strategic-level nuclear warheads. In contrast, the New START agreement limits the arsenals of both the United States and Russia to 800 each.

Some critics find it hard to take China’s characterization of its nuclear arsenal lightly, particularly considering the backdrop of its territorial actions in the South China Sea and ongoing tensions regarding Taiwan.

The New START Treaty, forged by former U.S. President Barack Obama and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev in 2010, officially expired on Thursday. Following rising tensions due to the invasion of Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin suspended Russia’s involvement in inspections and verification activities in February 2023.

Putin claimed that despite suspending these inspection activities, Russia intends to monitor nuclear warhead limits independently for the foreseeable future. This caused some leaders in the U.S. to question the efficacy of China’s attempts to downplay its expanding nuclear stockpile.

Director of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR), Sergey Naryshkin, asserted that Russia plans to act responsibly following the treaty’s expiration. He acknowledged the situation and the actions of other nuclear-capable states.

Naryshkin emphasized that Russia has adhered to the treaty up until its expiration, dismissing criticisms regarding compliance. However, the U.S. has long suggested that Russia has not been compliant with the treaty.

Former President Donald Trump has vocally urged China to engage in trilateral discussions regarding a new treaty to replace New START; he criticized the expiring agreement as a “bad deal” that unfairly benefited Russia.

In a recent statement, China’s state-operated Global Times suggested that Trump’s hesitancy to swiftly negotiate a new deal with Russia could lead to renewed conflict, placing the responsibility for a new arms agreement squarely on the United States. The article indicated that the future of nuclear arms control might hinge primarily on U.S. actions, noting that Russia has shown a greater willingness to engage.