Tensions Rise in the Taiwan Strait with Naval Confrontations

As tensions escalate in the Taiwan Strait, naval encounters are becoming both more frequent and more assertive, yet no shots have been fired so far.

On Tuesday, China sent naval forces to monitor an American warship operating near a contested shoal in the South China Sea, while Taiwan dealt with a Chinese Coast Guard ship that allegedly entered restricted waters with its tracking system turned off, according to reports from the Chinese military and Taiwan’s Coast Guard. These incidents highlight the increasing potential for military confrontations in a region where Chinese forces are actively challenging American and allied vessels.

The USS Charleston, part of the Independence-class of littoral combat ships, entered waters close to Sabina Shoal in the Spratly Islands early on Tuesday. In response, Chinese naval forces began shadowing the American vessel, as noted by the PLA Southern Theater Command Navy.

“Taiwan is finally getting serious about its defense, developing capabilities intended to prevent an invasion or blockade fleet from accessing the island,” commented James R. Holmes, a maritime strategy expert at the Naval War College, during an interview. “If they can’t access, then China can’t claim victory, and Taiwan can hold on. Beijing’s aggressive stance has actually united countries along the first island chain against it, including the U.S., which has a foothold in the Western Pacific.”

Brent Sadler, a senior research fellow at the Heritage Foundation, pointed out that China has been maintaining a considerable naval presence in the Philippine Sea, including survey ships and coast guard vessels. “China’s military activities around Taiwan are also giving their crews valuable operational experience in waters they might need to operate in during a future conflict. That said, it’s important to view these actions as part of an evolutionary process in the PLA’s development to meet the goals set by Xi Jinping for 2027,” he explained.

Beijing has accused the American warship of entering its territory unlawfully, deploying its naval forces to keep tabs on its movements, as stated by the Chinese military.

Neither the Chinese Embassy in Washington nor the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office in the U.S., which serves as Taiwan’s unofficial embassy, responded to requests for comments.

“Since August 2022, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has created a ‘new normal’ of military activity surrounding Taiwan, with multiple warships and military aircraft operating near the island daily,” shared Christopher H. Sharman, a professor at the Naval War College, discussing this topic in a personal capacity. “This Chinese military pressure periodically escalates, sometimes gaining international media attention, while other escalations go unnoticed. A new tactic includes regularly deploying China Coast Guard vessels east of Taiwan, which could help enforce domestic laws against vessels in international waters,” he added.

The recent incidents are also taking place amid heightened tensions between Beijing and Manila, with ongoing disputes over territorial claims in the South China Sea.

The U.S. has a mutual defense treaty with the Philippines that covers armed attacks on Philippine military forces and public vessels, including Coast Guard ships, throughout this contentious area.

Beijing’s extensive territorial claims in the South China Sea have faced international legal challenges, notably a 2016 arbitration ruling that dismissed its claims beyond what international law allows.

In response to U.S. activities, Chinese naval spokesperson Yin Gang stated, “The U.S. should halt such operations immediately,” claiming Washington is infringing on Chinese sovereignty and destabilizing the region.

“The situation is that while Beijing is enhancing its military strength across the Taiwan Strait, it hasn’t yet reached a point where it feels confident enough to strike Taiwan at a reasonable cost,” explained Steve Tsang, director of the SOAS China Institute at the University of London. “Xi Jinping won’t initiate a war he can’t win decisively and without significant losses, so he won’t give that order just yet.”

The United States has a longstanding history of conducting freedom of navigation operations in the South China Sea to contest excessive maritime claims and support international navigation rights. However, the Pentagon did not classify Tuesday’s venture as a formal freedom of navigation operation.

In a separate incident, Taiwan reported a confrontation involving Chinese Coast Guard vessel 3102, which approached the Pratas Islands with its tracking system disabled. According to Taiwan’s Coast Guard, they detected the Chinese ship around 5 a.m. and sent out the patrol vessel Taichung to intercept it. By 8 a.m., the Chinese vessel had entered restricted waters, leading Taiwanese authorities to issue repeated warnings.

This encounter escalated into a verbal clash regarding Taiwan’s sovereignty, with the Chinese vessel claiming that the Republic of China (Taiwan’s official name) did not exist.

“It’s crucial to recognize that Beijing’s goal to incorporate Taiwan under its government has always been a core national priority, but the capabilities to achieve this have evolved over time—particularly in terms of short-range missiles and naval strength,” noted Allen R. Carlson, a government professor at Cornell University. “This isn’t a recent development but rather a long-term progression.”

In response to the Chinese vessel’s actions, Taiwan asserted its sovereignty, insisting that the ship leave Taiwanese waters. Authorities reported they had expelled Chinese Coast Guard vessels from the region around Pratas 12 times this year, resulting in 15 encounters.

Despite these confrontations, Beijing continues to assert control over the contested islands and adjacent waters, while Taiwan maintains that its sovereignty remains unaffected by Chinese authority.

“I believe that China is posturing and isn’t ready for a war, nor will it provoke one intentionally,” stated Gordon G. Chang, a senior fellow at the Gatestone Institute and an expert in China affairs. “Its economic dependence on trade is unprecedented, making it too risky to disrupt global commerce. An invasion would be quite unpopular domestically, leading the regime to be averse to casualties; the military’s recent purges have left it in a poor state for launching major hostilities. Additionally, the rise of a formidable coalition against them will likely force China to rethink its aggressive stance.”