China’s Support for Peaceful Reconciliation in Ukraine

China’s Foreign Ministry expressed on Monday that Beijing backs “all efforts towards a peaceful reconciliation in Ukraine” and emphasized the importance of dialogue following Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to Alaska for a meeting with President Donald Trump.

Trump is set to meet with Ukrainian President Voldy Mie Zelensky and various European leaders on Monday, all of whom are seeking a lasting peace deal to conclude Russia’s full-scale invasion that began in February 2022. Putin had previously claimed that Donbas would be annexed in September 2022.

Trump aims to take a leadership role in addressing the Russian invasion. Under Joe Biden’s administration, the Chinese Communist Party made multiple aggressive attempts to mediate between conflicting parties. Despite a history of friendly relations with pre-war Ukraine, which continues to be a part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative, Russia remains one of China’s closest allies. It’s interesting, I think, how geopolitical friendships often shift so dramatically in times of conflict.

However, this friendship hasn’t translated into a significant influence over the war. Recently, China announced plans to end the conflict by 2023, but missions by Chinese diplomats to Russia, Ukraine, and other European partners haven’t yielded noticeable results. In fact, as evidence surfaced suggesting that China might be supplying Russia with military supplies, relations between Ukraine and China have soured.

During the briefing, Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokeswoman Maoze stated that Beijing hopes all relevant parties will engage in peace talks led by Trump. She remarked, “We expect all relevant parties and stakeholders to participate in shaping the terms of peace negotiations and enduring peace in Ukraine.” It seems, perhaps, that everyone is eager for some resolution.

Mao also commented positively on Trump’s meeting with Putin but evaded a question regarding whether China would offer security guarantees to Ukraine to prevent further violence from Russia. Instead, she reiterated that “China supports every effort towards a peaceful resolution of the Ukrainian crisis” and expressed contentment with the improved US-Russia relations, along with their engagement towards a political resolution.

A Chinese provincial propaganda newspaper noted Mao’s comments but also highlighted that they were somewhat dismissive of the idea of China taking on a security role, stating that the comments should be seen in that light.

In an article, the same newspaper referenced China’s earlier peace proposal and framed it as lending credibility to Trump’s peaceful initiatives. They emphasized that historical lessons show that negotiation is the only way to navigate the crisis.

China’s white paper on its position regarding the crisis didn’t lay out concrete steps for dialogue and negotiation. It simply restated that such efforts are the only viable solutions, which I find a bit frustrating. Both Ukraine and Russia largely ignored this proposal, while Brazil seemed to embrace it as potentially meaningful.

In the backdrop, Chinese government-approved “experts” expressed that Europe is increasingly sidelined from mediation efforts. Notably, European leaders, including Ursula von der Leyen and Emmanuel Macron, are set to participate in talks, underlining that China is not represented at the conference.

In a rather critical assessment, these “experts” noted that Europe is trying to influence Trump but feels increasingly powerless. Without substantial military strength or nuclear control, Europe’s leverage is limited, and its voices in the Russia-Ukraine conflict seem to be increasingly overshadowed.

One expert pointed out that Europe lacks strategic planning, relying solely on arming Ukraine to prolong the war instead of presenting solid peace initiatives. Another expert added that if Europe can’t participate in negotiations, they should at least ensure they are not merely sidelined.