China's National Bureau of Statistics released data for 2023 on Wednesday, revealing the population has declined for the second year in a row and the birth rate remains at a record low.
The Chinese government blamed the population decline on the Wuhan coronavirus pandemic, with its rising death rate and strict lockdown, but Reuters reports Quote External analysts said the demographic fallout from China's brutal “one child” forced abortion policy lingers, and similar factors are driving down birth rates in many other developed countries.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China's population decreased by 2.08 million people, or 0.15%, last year. This may not seem like a big deal compared to a population of over 1.4 billion people, but China needs people. growth To achieve industrial goals.
China's death toll rose by 6.6% to 11 million, the highest death rate since the Cultural Revolution, largely due to the pandemic and its aftermath. Meanwhile, the number of births decreased by 5.7% due to the record low birth rate of 6.39 births per 1,000 people. South Korea's birth rate is currently the lowest among major countries, at 4.9 births per 1,000 people.
The United Nations currently predicts that China's population will decline by 109 million people by 2050, which, as Reuters noted, is “three times the decline from the previous forecast in 2019.”
The lack of births means China's population is aging, with the number of people aged 60 and over expected to increase by more than 400 million by 2035. China currently has approximately 280 million people over the age of 60, and the rapidly increasing number of elderly people is coupled with a shortage of young workers. This will place a huge burden on the welfare and medical systems.
of South China Morning Post (SCMP) Wednesday Quote Chinese researchers have suggested that future labor shortages could be offset by robots, a somewhat dubious proposition given the difficulty of getting robots to pay the taxes that support pensions for the elderly. be.
“Amid labor shortages and rising labor costs, replacing humans with robots shows economic benefits,” said an upbeat research report from Hwafu Securities, noting that China's huge investment in robotics has led to South Korea's He said that Japan has been able to catch up with automated countries such as Germany and Germany. , and just a few years later to Japan.
The reigning king of robot workplaces is South Korea, which faces even more serious problems than China and Japan: a lack of births and an aging population.of SCMP Analysts say that while South Korea is fortunate to have electronics and automobiles, two major industries that are expected to undergo significant robotization, China probably won't be able to maintain the desired economic growth rate through automation. said.
China has two other unique problems. One is the growing number of young people who say they cannot afford to get married or have children, and are extremely depressed. The other is the depression caused by the loss of the “demographic dividend'' that has resulted in a rapid increase in the working-age population over the past three generations. be. It's gone now.
of economist assumed In September, he said that the “demographic dividend” was somewhat of a myth, and that China's phenomenal growth in the 1990s and 2000s was due to policy liberalization and an improved workforce. quality than that amount. Yet young Chinese feel like they are living on a barren shore after the tide goes out, and they will not experience the same strong economic growth and rising standards of living that their parents did. .
Vibrant means babies, but gloomy societies are losing their ability to reproduce.of economist He suggested that some of the pessimism felt by young people in China is exaggerated – for example, China's cities can probably accommodate further growth with proper management and real estate reform, so there is a good chance that China's rural to big cities will do well. The dream of moving to get a job is completely unrealistic.
of SCMP China's plummeting birth rate was blamed on “high childcare costs, the pursuit of individualism, and diversifying lifestyles that dampen enthusiasm for starting a family.”
These factors may have been further reinforced by the coronavirus lockdown, which has crushed the spirits of China's youth in far greater numbers than its leaders had anticipated. This may be one reason why China's pro-fertility policies have not worked as well as expected, although critics say many of the policies announced by the Chinese government were not properly funded or properly managed. There is also.
China's state-owned Global Times The remaining On Tuesday, he calmly assured that the new demographic numbers are just a temporary problem, as the government will eventually solve the problem with a combination of appropriate “natal support policies”.
of Global Times But while he previously dismissed such concerns as Western media hype, he was willing to admit that “long-term negative population growth” is now “an established reality” in China.
As quoted by one expert: Global Times suggested the Chinese zodiac might come to the rescue:
Yuan Xin, vice president of the China Population Association and a demographer at Nankai University in Tianjin, said that negative population growth will be moderated to some extent by 2024 due to Chinese preference for the Year of the Dragon and the subsequent recovery in births. He said that there is a possibility that The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has been going on for three years. He made the remarks at a seminar on Tuesday organized by the China Population Association.
Furthermore, he believes that the growing reluctance of young women to get married and have children can still be overcome through appropriate incentive programs and “supportive policies,” and although local governments have announced large-scale subsidy programs, Some claimed that no support was provided. We need to provide affordable prices for children.
Some of these Chinese demographers believe that the disparate mix of policies offered by different cities and provinces confuses the public and makes the government look insincere, while at the same time calling for a “systematic policy restructuring.” Some said a concerted national effort by “ could give young people the confidence they need to improve policy. their fertility.
He Dan, director of the China Population and Development Research Center, suggested that a carefully crafted fertility policy would prioritize “reducing living costs, alleviating educational concerns, and promoting employment for women.” These three factors are widely seen as leading young couples to conclude that marriage and child-rearing are too costly. expensive.
