China is reportedly set to introduce a tax on condoms starting in January in an attempt to address its declining birth rate, a situation heavily influenced by the former “one-child policy” that lasted from 1979 to 2015.
Beginning in January, a 13% value-added tax will be applied to contraceptives, including condoms, as reported. This shift ends a 30-year period during which contraceptives were exempt from taxation—a policy that coincided with the government’s efforts to limit population growth and family size.
The government has also proposed some financial incentives aimed at encouraging citizens to have children, hoping to turn around the troubling demographic trends. As part of this new initiative, value-added tax will be removed for services related to childcare—like daycare centers, kindergartens, elderly care facilities, and organizations supporting people with disabilities, as well as marriage services.
According to China’s National Bureau of Statistics, the country’s population is expected to decline for the third consecutive year in 2024. There was a slight uptick in births in the previous year, with about 9.54 million babies born compared to 9.02 million in 2023. However, deaths exceeded births with 10.93 million fatalities, causing the net population to fall again. The birth rate is currently calculated at 6.77 births per 1,000 people, only a tad higher than the 6.39 births recorded in 2023.
Last year’s birth figures represented about half of the 18.8 million births recorded in 2016, which was the first year after the one-child policy was rescinded. Even after that policy ended, the government maintained restrictions, permitting only two children per family from 2016 to 2021 before increasing the limit to three. However, enforcement of these new rules has reportedly been inconsistent.
The Ministry of Civil Affairs noted a striking decrease in marriage applications last year, dropping from 7.68 million to 6.1 million, which isn’t likely to assist in improving the birth rate.
Concerns regarding the demographic crisis were discussed, emphasizing that the harsh one-child policy contributed significantly to the situation. It reportedly led to many young women being excluded from marriage due to forced abortions that took place until the policy was repealed in 2015. Many families, under the policy, preferred having male children if allowed to have only one.
Experts also point to the rapid urbanization that began in the 1980s as a factor affecting birth rates. Young people often leave rural areas for cities, seeking better job opportunities in tech sectors. Birth rates in urban areas tend to be lower, especially among women who focus on careers and may hesitate to start families.
Youth unemployment is another factor at play, with an expected rate of around 17% for those under 24 in 2024. Economic instability makes it less likely for young people to marry or take on the financial responsibilities that come with raising children.
In response, local authorities are trying to incentivize births through cash rewards for newborns, expanded parental leave, and restrictions on abortion—unless deemed “medically necessary,” as reported.
While some experts believe the contraceptive tax is unlikely to significantly increase birth rates, it has sparked discussions about potential links to rising HIV infection rates due to unprotected sex.
