U.S. Claims China is Expanding Nuclear Arsenal

Christopher Yeo, the U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Arms Control and Nonproliferation, addressed a disarmament conference in Geneva, Switzerland, on Monday. He expressed concerns that China is quickly increasing its nuclear weapons stockpile and covertly testing low-yield nuclear bombs to enhance its capabilities.

Yeo stated, “Despite claims to the contrary, China has deliberately and without restraint expanded its nuclear arsenal without any transparency or clear indication of its intentions or ultimate goals.” This comment highlighted the U.S. view of China’s continued nuclear expansion.

Yeo also shared declassified evidence suggesting that China conducted a secret low-yield nuclear test at the Lop Nur facility, situated near Kazakhstan, on June 22, 2020. Even though China supposedly committed to a moratorium on nuclear testing back in 1996, U.S. intelligence agencies contend that China has violated this self-imposed ban multiple times.

He described the 2020 test as comparable to a 10-ton nuclear explosion or a conventional explosion of 5 tons, presuming it fully interacted with solid rock beneath the water table. This test has drawn significant scrutiny.

In a statement earlier this month, Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security, Thomas DiNanno, confirmed that the U.S. had knowledge of the Lop Nur test. In the meeting, Chinese representatives accused the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) of using advanced technology to mask its compliance with international verification rules.

DiNanno pointed out that the PLA had attempted to obscure the test due to its breach of the No-Test Commitment. “China has used decoupling strategies to conceal its activities from the global community,” he remarked.

Both Yeo and DiNanno explained that the PLA was successful in keeping the June 2020 explosion from being detected by the agency monitoring adherence to the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT). It’s important to note that China has not ratified the CTBT, yet the treaty’s secretariat endeavors to track nuclear detonations worldwide, with very few recorded since its inception.

In 2020, a number of activities at Lop Nur raised international alarms, but the U.S. has recently provided concrete evidence indicating that nuclear weapon tests have indeed occurred there. This particular incident is becoming increasingly relevant as officials propose that the expired New START treaty between the U.S. and Russia should be replaced with an agreement that also includes China.

“Almost all of America’s deployed nuclear forces were accounted for under New START, whereas only part of Russia’s substantially larger arsenal was included; notably, none of China’s nuclear capacities were addressed,” DiNanno noted.

“China’s nuclear arsenal is unrestricted, lacking transparency, declaration, and regulation,” he continued.

Yeo echoed this sentiment, stating that despite China’s assertions of maintaining a minimal nuclear arsenal for deterrence, it might reach parity with the U.S. and Russia “within the next four to five years.”

Earlier, Yeo had discussions with Russian counterparts in Geneva and was expected to meet with Chinese officials soon. He remarked on the challenges posed by China in allowing international oversight of its nuclear activities, highlighting that the U.S. had permitted seismic tests at its Nevada site but not near Lop Nur.

Meanwhile, China firmly rejected the U.S. allegations, with Ambassador Jian Shen insisting that the claims of a nuclear test are groundless and merely a pretext for the U.S. to resume its own nuclear tests.

He added, “The U.S.’s actions of disparaging others to evade its arms control responsibilities significantly damage its global standing.”

In a related context, President Trump announced in October that the U.S. might resume nuclear testing for the first time since 1992, influenced by China’s nuclear advancements and Russia’s developmental efforts.

After a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, Trump indicated his directive to the Department of War to commence equal nuclear testing. He expressed, “Since other countries are testing, I think it’s right for us to follow suit.”

Both Yeo and DiNanno’s presence at the disarmament conference appeared to signal an openness to a compromise, potentially laying the groundwork for nuclear testing cessation contingent upon a new arms control framework that includes China and Russia.

During the conference, DiNanno emphasized the necessity of determining “how much deterrence is enough,” suggesting that the answer hinges partly on the effectiveness of future multilateral strategic stability talks.