While many Democrats are celebrating the surge in support for Democratic candidate Kamala Harris, CNN polling analyst Harry Enten said: Warn Past trends suggest former President Donald Trump is likely to win support.
Enten argued on CNN on Tuesday that the race is heating up.
Harris is leading in three battleground states – Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – but Enten noted that polls have underestimated Trump’s favorability in those states by an average of 9 percentage points in 2016 and 5 percentage points in 2020.
“The bottom line is, if you’re a Kamala Harris fan and you want to open a bottle of champagne and pop the cork, don’t do that. Donald Trump is putting a lot of effort into this race. If the polls change like they have in the past few years between now and the final results, Donald Trump will actually win.”
Enten then pointed to polling showing that enthusiasm for Biden’s reelection campaign actually dropped slightly after Harris secured the nomination, while enthusiasm for Trump actually increased over the same period.
“The bottom line is that while there may be increased enthusiasm for Kamala Harris, that doesn’t necessarily translate into almost certain voters,” he explained.
Finally, Enten argued that Trump is generally more popular at this point in the 2024 campaign than he was at the same time in 2020 or 2016.
Enten I posted a video of the segment On his X account.
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