CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten warned Monday that Vice President Kamala Harris' current national lead over former President Donald Trump is too small to indicate a likely victory in November's election because of the Electoral College.
After last week's debate, Harris' national lead over Trump only grew by one point, even though a majority of viewers believed she would win. According to Enten told CNN News Central that Harris has a 2.5-point lead in his poll, giving her about a 50-50 chance of winning, according to ABC News/Ipsos data released Sunday. (Related: When asked how she could lower her cost of living, Harris quickly transitioned into a lengthy tirade about her middle-class upbringing and lawns.)
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CNN's Harry Enten warns Harris is currently in the “danger zone” in the polls pic.twitter.com/PmJrdZORV7
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“So you're saying she has a 2.5-point lead nationwide. If Harris wins the popular vote by two or three points, she only has a 53% chance of winning the Electoral College. So essentially, she has to go all the way north to three or four points to be sure of winning,” Enten told host John Berman. “Her chance of winning the Electoral College is a majority, a clear majority. If she wins by less than two points, she only has a 23% chance of winning. Harris is in the danger zone right now, which means she basically has a 50/50 chance of winning given the national popular vote margin.”
“So here's the situation: Harris has about a 70% chance right now of winning the popular vote, but only about a 50% chance of winning the Electoral College. So, John, right now there's about a 20% chance that Kamala Harris wins the popular vote but loses the Electoral College,” he added. “So we may be heading toward one of the splits we saw in 2016 and 2000, where Kamala Harris wins the popular vote but loses the Electoral College.”
Moreover, Harris only has a 1.7% lead over Trump. Nationwide Only 0.2% advantage A RealClearPolitics average of recent polls shows similar results in the top seven battleground states.
“Basically, right now we're in this weird middle ground where we honestly don't know what's going to happen based on the outcome of the popular vote,” Enten said. “That's why the national polls that show Kamala Harris in the lead right now don't actually mean that much.”
Enten recently noted that the presidential election is so “close” that Trump “only needs to beat the current polls by one point” to guarantee victory in the Electoral College.
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