Coffee Prices Experience Recovery After Recent Declines

On Tuesday, Arabica Coffee for May delivery rose by 7.45 cents, marking a 2.68% increase, while ICE Robusta Coffee also saw an uptick, gaining 80 cents or 2.25%.

After a tough start, coffee prices made a strong comeback, especially Arabica, which had previously dropped to a 15-month low. The Brazilian real strengthened on Tuesday, leading to short covering in coffee futures; it climbed 0.31%, just shy of Monday’s 1.75-year high against the dollar. This firming of the real is creating challenges for Brazilian coffee exports.

Over the past month, coffee prices had been under considerable pressure. Arabica hit a low it hadn’t seen in 15 months, while Robusta fell to a 6.5-month low—largely due to expectations of a substantial Brazilian coffee crop increasing global supply. Recently, Brazil’s Conab agency projected that the country’s coffee production for 2026 will rise by 17.2% year-over-year to reach a record 66.2 million bags. Notably, Arabica production alone is expected to jump by 23.2% to 44.1 million bags, while Robusta sees a more modest increase of 6.3% to 22.1 million bags.

The recent rainfall in Brazil has also brightened prospects for coffee harvesting. A report indicated that Minas Gerais, the main region for Arabica coffee, received 62.8 mm of rainfall in just one week, which is about 138% of the historical average. This is certainly good news for farmers there.

On another front, Robusta prices have struggled due to increasing coffee exports from Vietnam, the leading Robusta producer in the world. Vietnam’s National Bureau of Statistics revealed that coffee exports in January reached 198,000 tons, a significant increase of 38.3% compared to the previous year. The total coffee export volume for Vietnam in 2025 was noted at 1.58 million metric tons, up 17.5% year-over-year. Furthermore, projections for Vietnam’s coffee production in 2025/26 suggest a 6% increase, reaching 1.76 million metric tons, which would be the highest in four years.

In terms of inventory, there has been a recovery in ICE coffee stocks, which generally pressures prices. Arabica inventory had dipped to a 1.75-year low in November but has since climbed to a 3.75-month high. Similarly, the Robusta inventory also saw a low before rebounding in recent weeks.

On a note of concern, the Brazilian Ministry of Trade reported a dramatic drop in coffee exports for January, falling 42.4% year-on-year to 141,000 tons. Meanwhile, Colombia, the second-largest Arabica producer, has seen its own production decline—down 34% in January compared to the previous year, supporting prices somewhat.

Yet, the International Coffee Organization pointed out that global coffee exports decreased by 0.3% in the current marketing year compared to last year, totaling 138,658,000 bags.

In its semi-annual report, the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service suggested that global coffee production in 2025/26 might rise slightly by 2%, reaching 178,848,000 bags. However, it forecasted a decline in Arabica production by 4.7% to 95,515,000 bags, while Robusta production is on track to increase by 10.9% to 83,333,000 bags. Notably, projections for Brazil’s coffee output indicated a 3.1% decrease to 63 million bags, while Vietnam’s output is expected to rise to 30.8 million bags, marking the highest level in four years. Ending stocks for 2025/26 might also decline by 5.4%, dropping from 21.307 million bags to 20.148 million bags.