Polling data indicates that Democrat Abdul El-Sayed is currently ahead in the Senate race in Michigan. However, significant voices within key Democrat-leaning groups express that he hasn’t won their support, even as absentee ballots have started to come in.
Michigan, like many Rust Belt states, has a mixed political landscape. The state leaned toward President Donald Trump in the elections of 2016 and 2024, but swung for President Joe Biden in 2020. Presently, it has a Democrat-led executive branch along with a Democrat state Senate, yet the House remains under Republican control.
The dynamics of the state were highlighted when Trump won Michigan in 2024, but Vice President Kamala Harris secured victories in Wayne County, which encompasses Detroit, and Oakland County, which has a large Jewish community. That year, Democrat Elissa Slotkin narrowly defeated Republican Mike Rogers in the Senate race by a mere 0.34%.
This context sets the stage for a competitive race in 2026, where El-Sayed and Rogers are competing for the seat that will soon be vacated by Democrat Sen. Gary Peters.
As of Wednesday afternoon, Blaze News’ Poll Watch shows El-Sayed with a slight lead of 2.6%. Notably, CNN reports that El-Sayed has forecasted he will win by a margin of seven points.
Nevertheless, prominent Michigan Democrats, along with some black and Jewish voters, indicate that El-Sayed may still need to secure more support within his own party.
Democrat Rep. Hillary Scholten, representing a district in Western Michigan, was recorded on a video from September 26, acknowledging that the El-Sayed campaign has significant work to do “to connect with the black community.”
In a clip that gained attention this week, a black woman remarked, “We don’t know him,” while another added, “He’s taking advantage of the fact that we, as black people, are Democrats, and he thinks we’re going to vote for him anyway, and I’m like, ‘No, sir.'”
A panel of pro-Israel Democrats expressed their doubts about El-Sayed, particularly in light of troubling associations. A former campaign staffer is facing federal indictment related to anti-Semitic attacks, some of El-Sayed’s family members have connections to Islamic extremist groups, and he controversially responded to an attack on Temple Israel by stating, “Hurt people hurt people.”
“I can’t support Abdul El-Sayed because, once again, he’s opposing something that is fundamentally me,” one Jewish mother stated.
“I might consider Mike Rogers,” another voter shared.
Lansing Mayor Andy Schor, who is Jewish, pointed out that the El-Sayed campaign has not actively reached out to him for support, suggesting he may ultimately withhold his vote. “If he doesn’t need me, he doesn’t need me,” Schor remarked, as noted by CNN.
Democrat Attorney General Dana Nessel, also Jewish, initially distanced herself from El-Sayed but later endorsed him.
In recent days, Blaze News received multiple messages from Nonnegotiable Michigan, a newly formed group of Democrat-leaning Jews in Michigan that aims to urge El-Sayed and other Democratic candidates to affirm commitments to Jewish safety and identity.
“We have consistently shown up for Democrats — but our support hinges on feeling safe and valued in a party that has long been our political home,” a message delivered on a Sunday stated.
Scholten and the El-Sayed campaign did not respond to requests for comment from Blaze News.
Greg Manz, senior communications director for the Michigan GOP, characterized El-Sayed as a “conman” who has repeatedly ignored the concerns of black voters while being financed by figures associated with the Muslim Brotherhood.
“The departure of Jewish and black Democrats from Abdul El-Sayed’s camp clearly illustrates his weakening coalition,” Manz remarked in a statement to Blaze News.
“The panic is evident.”
