- Key insights: A shift in fees, the rise of buy now/pay later options, and new technologies are reshaping how consumers shop and pay.
- What is the problem: Credit and debit card swipe fees are set to increase from $172 billion in 2023 to $187.2 billion in 2024.
- Future outlook: Consumer interest in agent commerce and cryptocurrencies is likely to push towards new payment options as we enter the new year.
Trends in consumer payments—like interchange fees going back up, the growing popularity of buy now/pay later (BNPL), crypto payments, and agent commerce—are expected to influence payment methods by 2026. It’s worth mentioning the on-going Proposed Vendor Settlement, which might affect Visa’s relationship with Mastercard and reshape how banks handle credit cards and consumer choices in the future.
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If this settlement is greenlit, banks may need to rethink how they recover lost interchange revenue. This could lead to higher interest rates, increased account fees, or less enticing rewards for clients, as noted by Sarah Ellingson, managing director and financial services partner at LEK Consulting, in her conversation with American Banker. “Customers seem very drawn to rewards,” she pointed out.
Here’s what banks ought to take into account about evolving consumer payment trends as we move toward 2026.
Refund of interchange fee
Consumer pushback against interchange fees, even when payments fail, could result in a decline in credit card usage moving forward.
For instance, the Texas Restaurant Association is urging consumers to prefer cash or debit card payments this holiday season, as restaurants face ballooning credit card swipe fees. A report from Nilsson indicates that combined swipe fees for credit and debit cards will reach $187.2 billion in 2024, up from $172 billion last year. The average fee charged to merchants by Visa and Mastercard stands at 2.35% for 2024.
Continued rise in BNPL
Concerns about budgeting are likely to sustain the trend of using buy now/pay later options. Research by BCG shows that around 30% of U.S. consumers are utilizing some form of BNPL. Younger consumers particularly favor these options, with 55% of Gen Z and 40% of Millennials engaging with BNPL methods. This trend might impact how often credit cards are used, especially among younger demographics.
“I think we’re going to see BNPL expand into more categories,” Ellingson shared with American Banker. “Everyday purchases like groceries and pharmacy items could become more common for these payment methods.”
Some banks, including Barclays, JPMorgan Chase, and Deutsche Bank, are stepping into the BNPL arena and are expected to keep growing in this domain.
Cryptocurrency payments
According to Jeroen Hoelscher, global head of payments services at Capgemini, interest in using stablecoins for transactions is rising among consumers. Although the framework is still being established, there’s notable growth potential. Initially, stablecoins will likely be used for international payments, but Hoelscher anticipates that, in the not-too-distant future, everyday consumers will also utilize them for transactions.
Acceptance of digital currencies like Bitcoin for payments is also gaining momentum. Recently, Square began allowing its nearly 4 million U.S. merchants to accept Bitcoin transaction-free until 2026. “Merchants need to offer various payment options—it’s crucial not to lose customers because they can’t use their preferred method,” Hoelscher emphasized.
Gen AI and agent commerce
A report from late November indicated that 45% of U.S. consumers are now using AI generation tools to search and compare products, a significant jump since the start of the year, according to BCG. Lauren Taylor, leading BCG’s Customer Insight Center, noted, “This activity is integrated into the entire purchasing process.”
This year, Visa and Mastercard debuted an AI platform for shopping assistants that can search, select, and complete payments for consumers. Additionally, in May, PayPal launched its Agent Commerce feature, enabling users to shop and transact through conversational searches.
Hoelscher believes next year will see more retailers, payment providers, and tech companies testing these capabilities. Some will likely find it challenging, making consumer acceptance trends particularly interesting to observe.
While many consumers may be open to letting AI handle their shopping, confidence in AI managing payments correctly raises questions about authentication and convenience. “It ultimately comes down to how convenient it is,” Hoelscher remarked.
Young consumers turn to fintech for their financial needs
A growing number of younger consumers are opting for fintech solutions for financial services. Jonathan Vaughan Burleigh, an analyst at GlobalData, highlighted how platforms like Monzo and Revolut in the UK, alongside SoFi and Chime in the U.S., have gained traction.
Research from GlobalData points out that young consumers prioritize ease and speed, prompting banks to continually innovate their digital products to satisfy desires for instant and flexible banking options. Vaughan-Burley noted that these fintechs offer multiple payment methods, including debit and credit cards, which could further encroach on traditional banks’ market share. Digital banking simplifies money management for users.
