Midterm Elections: Old Playbook or New Playbook?

The question surrounding the upcoming midterm elections this fall is whether we’re sticking to the traditional strategies or embracing something entirely new. It’s a bit complicated, mainly because recent political developments have been quite unprecedented.

Many established norms have essentially been tossed aside. The American political landscape has faced significant tremors in the last few years. For instance, we have seen a president win the Electoral College despite losing the popular vote not once, but twice in the span of 16 years (2000 and 2016). This isn’t something that happens often, with only a few instances in history prior to that.

Then, there’s the matter of a president being impeached twice yet managing to return to office a few years later. We also can’t forget the Capitol riot, which further fueled debates about the legitimacy of the 2020 election.

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If we assume we’re following the old script, the Democrats could be in for a productive November, as the sitting president’s party usually sees a loss of around 25 seats during their first midterms. Such elections often serve as a commentary on the sitting president, which might explain why many Republicans are distancing themselves from Trump, given his polling numbers typically hover around the mid-thirties to forty percent on a good day. On top of that, we’ve got rising gas prices, soaring grocery costs, and ongoing conflict in Iran alongside a trade war with a key ally.

In this context, the old playbook suggests a rough road for the GOP in the upcoming election.

But things might not be that straightforward. Trump and some Republicans aligned with him have demonstrated an ability to defy political expectations. Control of the House could hinge on just a few votes. What happens if there are disputes over election security and the legitimacy of the results? The recent redistricting efforts may lend Republicans an advantage by reshaping about five to six districts in their favor nationwide.

In tight races, it’s possible we won’t know the election results immediately. A few days could pass—unless there’s a significant Democratic victory, of course.

Now, about that thing I mentioned earlier regarding the presidential party typically losing seats in their first midterm—yes, in some ways, this is Trump’s “first midterm.” But it feels a bit tricky to draw that parallel since he already faced a midterm in 2018. That was not a good year for the GOP. There’s no recent evidence to suggest how a president’s party performs after he’s left office and returns to have a say in the election cycle.

Additionally, with both parties reducing the number of competitive districts, those political “waves” that typically alter the course of midterms may not be as impactful. Think back to the Republican victories in 1994 and 2010, or the Democratic victory in 2018. Despite conditions seeming to favor the Democrats, it might still be a challenge for them to take control of the House.

Take 2018, for instance, when Democrats had a 44% approval rating compared to just 37% now. Back then, voters were eager for a change from Trump, but the current polling balance signals it’s unclear if dissatisfaction with him will automatically drive voters toward the Democratic side this time around.

And then there’s voter turnout to consider.

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Trump has been actively communicating that he’s “on the ballot” this fall. This could have two effects: historically, his presence tends to motivate voters to show up at the polls. In 2016, participation was at 60.1%, in 2020 it hit a remarkable 66.4%, and in 2024 it was 64.3% for registered voters.

However, given Trump’s current unpopularity, the awareness that he’s part of the ballot might actually discourage turnout among those who previously supported him, thus impacting House races. His performance in mobilizing independent voters in consequential races has been underwhelming, even when he secured the presidency in 2024.

Voter participation figures for midterms paint a worrying picture: in 2018, 50.1% of registered voters turned out, while it dropped to 46.1% in 2022, and was just 36.1% in 2014 with a notable spike of 41% during the historic 2010 elections when Republicans won a collective 63 House seats.

The effectiveness of this “Trump on the ballot” strategy might fall flat, especially when considering he acknowledged during his midterm convention in Dallas that gas prices likely wouldn’t drop until after the elections. Moreover, he mentioned the ongoing conflict in Iran would also loom large during these midterms.

So how can we gauge what to expect in November?

It’s challenging to predict without a clear narrative or wave forming. The best method to analyze control of the House is to look at individual races, which is rather labor-intensive.

For example, will Rep. Emanuel Cleaver, D-Mo., have a district to campaign in? Missouri Republicans had attempted to redraw Cleaver out of his district, but a recent court decision indicated the state must revert to older Congressional districts, which likely secures Cleaver’s position, or does it? Another ruling stated that primary ballots had already been cast, creating further uncertainty concerning the new maps.

All of this is unfolding with less than two months before the election.

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Is there significant momentum for Democrats in Iowa where the Senate seat and governorship could be at risk for Republicans? If Democrats capitalize, they could snag at least two or three seats: Republican Reps. Mariannette Miller-Meeks, Zach Nunn, and potentially the vacated seat by Rep. Ashley Hinson aiming for a Senate run.

What about Ohio? The state is witnessing competitive gubernatorial and senatorial races. Would a Democratic surge help Rep. Greg Landsman? Could allegations against Rep. Max Miller, R-Ohio, push him out of what’s typically a safe Republican district? Rep. Marcy Kaptur barely secured her seat by fewer than 1,000 votes in the last election, during a time when Trump won Ohio by a notable margin of 11 points. Redistricting has made Kaptur’s district slightly more favorable for her, yet she recently encountered a car accident that might hinder her campaigning efforts. Could this play a role?

Turning to Virginia, how well will Democrats perform? Rep. Jen Kiggans, R-Va., is up against former Rep. Elaine Luria, D-Va., who she previously defeated in 2022. What are the odds for former Rep. Tom Perriello, D-Va., to defeat Rep. John McGuire, R-Va.?

Additionally, Rep. Jared Golden is retiring, with former Maine Governor Paul LePage (R) vying for Golden’s seat. Is there a possibility that LePage could gain an edge amid Democratic turmoil in their quest to unseat Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine? After all, Trump managed to win one of Maine’s electoral votes in 2024, securing that Congressional district.

We could speculate on various districts all day, but without a clear wave, this is the method needed to accurately evaluate House races.

Conventional wisdom suggests Democrats could win the House this fall, yet it seems like it’s closer than it ought to be.

This leaves us navigating the playbook, pondering whether we’re following the old or new strategies.