The Cook Political Report, an election forecasting organization, has tilted Arizona, Georgia and Nevada in favor of VP Harris as she continues to close the gap in approval ratings with former President Trump.
In early July, all three of these states were considered “Republican” states, but President Biden was still in the race and had fallen further behind Trump both nationally and in key battleground states. However, polls now show Harris again within the margin of error of Trump, or in some cases slightly ahead, making these three battleground states “close races.”
“Democrats are united and energized for the first time in a long time, and Republicans are on the run. Trump and his running mate J.D. Vance’s self-destructive mistakes have shifted media attention from Biden’s age to Trump’s weaknesses,” Cook editor-in-chief Amy Walter said. post Explain the decision.
“In other words, the presidential election has shifted from one that Trump was sure to lose to one that is far more competitive,” she continued.
Cook cited FiveThirtyEight’s polling average of six key battleground states to illustrate how the race has changed: On July 21, when Biden dropped out, Trump was leading in every state by at least two points. Now, the states are close, with Harris holding slight leads in some.
Trump’s biggest lead is in Georgia, where his average lead was 5.9 points but is now just 1 point, and in Arizona, his previous lead of 5.5 points is now 1.9 points.
There aren’t enough polls from Nevada to compile the latest average, but Walter cited a CBS/Bloomberg poll that showed Harris leading by two points.
Cook’s analysis shows Arizona, Georgia and Nevada are again close, along with other battleground states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.
The change came after another handicapper, Sabatos Crystal Ball, changed the ratings for Minnesota, New Hampshire and Georgia in Harris’ favor.
Trump supporters say Harris is in a honeymoon phase since entering the race, but that it will not last and will not fundamentally change the race.
“Republicans argue that it will be difficult for Harris to maintain this euphoric tone for more than 90 days, especially when the conversation shifts from things she can control (the vice presidential announcement and the DNC program) to things she cannot (perceptions of inflation and dissatisfaction with the status quo),” Walter said, noting that Republicans have recently stepped up their attacks on Harris.
“The bottom line is that things look a lot better for Democrats than they were a few weeks ago, but Trump looks stronger than he was in 2020. It’s a 50-50 split,” she concluded.
