Could the Haley factor be Trump’s biggest obstacle by November? 

in spite of dismiss President Trump, who nominated Nikki Haley as his running mate, cannot ignore the “Haley factor.”

What is the Haley factor? Someone who can attract more of the conservative and centrist voters that Trump is leaving behind. So why is this the Haley factor? Because she’s already winning those votes in states that will decide whether or not she wins in 2024.

The last presidential election was much closer than most people realized. of 7 million The votes that separated Biden and Trump were also Biden’s majorities in California and New York combined. Candidates ran in 48 other states. Substantially uniform.

Of the 25 states won by Biden, six (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin) determined by The total number of votes is less than 312,000. Four of the states, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and Wisconsin, had margins of less than 77,000 votes. If that relatively small number of votes had been flipped, the election would have had a different outcome.

Given that 2020 is just around the corner, and that Trump remains a polarizing figure, it’s becoming harder to garner additional votes, but the question is whether he can get the votes he needs. Where can I get it? The most logical constituencies are conservatives and Republicans, which he already controls, and extending to right-wing independents. Going in the opposite direction was the path Biden took in 2020 when he chose Kamala Harris as his vice president.

for example, Republicans held 36% of voters in 2020, and Trump lost 6% of them. If Trump were able to cut the Republican loss in half, he would be worth about 1.7 million more votes. That may not seem like a big deal, but it’s more than 20 times the combined point difference in the four battleground states where Trump lost by the narrowest of margins.

But we don’t need to rely solely on assumptions. We have actual data from key battleground states.

This year, primaries were held in five of the six battleground states, with both Biden and Trump listed on the ballot (Trump did not participate). appear (Nevada). result Trump received more votes than Biden in three states: Arizona, Georgia, and Michigan. In four states, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, and Wisconsin, Republicans received more votes than Democrats.

But it’s Haley’s element that really stands out. She was never a serious threat to Trump, and she never received a huge amount of votes, but she was consistently getting votes. Haley, who ran against Trump in five state Republican primaries, received the lowest vote share of 12.7%. wisconsin. Her highest score was 26.6%. michigan.

small? yes. Is it trivial? no.

So there were enough Haley voters in each of those five states to flip everyone. 2020 TrumpIncluding Haley’s vote, Trump won Wisconsin by 56,000 votes, Georgia by 66,000 votes, Pennsylvania by 75,000 votes, Arizona by 100,000 votes, and Michigan by 143,000 votes.

But didn’t Trump make it clear that this was not the case? under consideration She and Haley haven’t done it yet. approved he?

First, this is politics, and this election is a presidential election. Second, any animosity between Trump and Haley should pale in comparison to the animosity between Biden and Harris. Harris accused Biden of colluding with racists. Democracy debate — Indeed, both Joe Biden and Jill Biden were reportedly “caught off guard” by the attack. And Mr. Harris brought much less than Mr. Haley. Remember, Harris has no federal executive experience and did not run in the 2020 primary.

Indeed, it could be argued that a significant portion of those who voted for Haley will vote for Trump against Biden in the general election. On the other hand, there is an argument that no matter what Haley says, her supporters will not follow Trump.

But 6% of Republicans disapproved of Trump in 2020, and just half that number could be enough for Trump to win. This doesn’t take into account Haley’s impact on independents and minorities (current polls show Trump already has support). intrusion) and women ( group Trump lost by 11 points in 2020.

The most easily ignored threat is that some people will abandon Trump if he chooses someone like Haley. Against anyone other than those in the destructive faction of bomb-throwers in the House who have crippled the Republican majority, against Haley or anyone of her ilk. teeth conservative person.

To Trump’s true supporters, who won his party’s nomination three times in a row (a feat last achieved by Democrat Franklin D. Roosevelt), his integrity is solid. That would give him the benefit of the doubt to nearly every running mate in the race against Biden.

At this point, this looks like a close race — all of Trump’s races have been close. Every vote counts, but it’s hard to get. And Trump still has perhaps the biggest wild card in the race: his running mate.

Nikki Haley herself may not be in the cards, but Sen. Tim Scott (South Carolina), Governor Doug Burgum (North Dakota), and former Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (R-Hawaii) is also frequently mentioned.

But Haley’s role, and more importantly the votes she won in the primary, are exactly what Trump needs to ensure victory.

Call this the Haley factor, and it could be the difference between 2016 and 2020 for Trump.

JT Young served on the professional staff of the House and Senate from 1987 to 2000, with the Treasury Department and Office of Management and Budget from 2001 to 2004, and as director of government communications for a Fortune 20 company from 2004 to 2023. I did.

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