The escalating Texas Senate race between Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and Rep. Collin Allred (D-Texas) should serve as a warning to Republicans in the heavily Republican state, one expert believes.
“Texas is an interesting political environment and will be a bellwether within the next decade,” Jimmy Keady, founder and president of JLK Political Strategies, told Fox News Digital. “The recent influx from the West Coast and a booming Hispanic population have made Texas' recent elections closer than Republicans would have liked.”
The comments came as Cruz seeks to fend off another stiff challenge from a Democratic opponent, this time Allred, who has represented Texas' 32nd Congressional District in the Dallas area since 2019.
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In 2012, Ted Cruz handily beat his Democratic opponent by nearly 16 percentage points. (Javin Botsford-Pool/Getty Images)
The Real Clear Politics polling average gives Cruz a five-point lead in the race, but there are worrying signs for the Republican incumbent, including recent polls that show Cruz leading within the margin of error.
Allred has been trying to build on his momentum, highlighting on social media a Morning Consult poll that shows him with a slight lead in the race.
“For the first time in this race, a new poll has us leading Ted Cruz by one point. I don't know about you guys, but I'm fired up and I'm ready to win,” Allred said on X. “We've got 47 days left. Let's go, Texas.”
Even prominent Republicans have noticed the challenge, with Trump campaign senior adviser Chris LaCivita appearing on X to ask “what's wrong with the Texas Senate race” and call for “real professionals” to “save” Cruz.
Rep. Collin Allred arrives on the House floor to attend President Biden's State of the Union address on March 7, 2024, at the U.S. Capitol. (Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images)
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The Trump campaign did not immediately respond to a request for comment from Fox News Digital.
Several polls heading into the 2018 Senate race between Cruz and former Rep. Beto O'Rourke (D-Texas) predicted a similarly close race, but Cruz managed to edge out his Democratic challenger by less than 3 percentage points.
But the narrow victory was a stark difference from Cruz's handily defeating Texas Democratic Rep. Paul Sadler by nearly 16 percentage points in 2012.
Keady argued that the narrowing margin in Texas should make Republicans nervous, but stressed that he believes Cruz will win in 2024.
Sen. Ted Cruz holds a five-point lead in his reelection bid, according to the Real Clear Politics polling average. (Alison Bailey/Middle East Images/AFP via Getty Images)
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“Texas will remain Republican in November and Ted Cruz will be re-elected,” Keady said, “but Republicans should not take the threat of losing the state lightly. As Republicans play blue states, Democrats will begin to play red states…. To hold on to these seats, Republicans will need to be disciplined in their messaging and prioritize candidate recruitment.”
The Cruz campaign did not immediately respond to Fox News' request for comment.
