Democrat Bob Casey leads Dave McCormick in Pennsylvania Senate race: Poll

A new poll shows Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pennsylvania) leading Republican Dave McCormick by nearly 10 points in a hypothetical general election showdown.

According to an Emerson College/The Hill poll, incumbent Casey, who has served in the Senate since 2007, received about 49% of the vote, compared to 39% for McCormick and 13% undecided. Casey holds a comfortable lead over McCormick among independents, contributing to the overall lead, leading by 21 points, 48% to 27%.

McCormick, a former hedge fund CEO, ran for the Senate in 2022 but narrowly lost to Republican candidate Mehmet Oz. He is likely to win the Republican nomination for the Senate this year and face Casey.

According to public opinion polling organizations, the net favorability ratings of the two candidates are almost even. Mr. Casey saw 50% of respondents favorably and 42% unfavorably, while McCormick saw 38% favorably and 32% unfavorably.

But Casey has a name recognition advantage: 30 percent of respondents said they had never heard of McCormick, while only about 8 percent said the same about Casey.

Mr. Casey’s approval rating was highest among voters with a graduate degree (60%) and among voters whose highest level of education was an associate’s or bachelor’s degree at 50%.

The poll also showed former President Trump narrowly leading Biden in key battleground states by a two-point margin, 45% to 43%, with 12% undecided. The result was an improvement over last month’s poll, which showed Biden leading by 7 points.

If independents Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West and Green Party candidate Jill Stein are included, Trump’s lead increases to 5 points. Under this hypothesis, the former president would receive 42% of the vote, compared to 37% for Biden, 8% for Kennedy, 2% for West and 1% for Stein.

The poll was conducted between February 14th and 16th among 1,000 registered voters. The margin of error is 3 points.

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