Most Americans had a somewhat bleak view of the U.S. economy in September, but consumer sentiment was lifted slightly by strong Democratic support.
The University of Michigan's preliminary consumer confidence index for September rose to 69, the highest reading since May and up 1.6 percent from the previous month.
However, the increase in consumer sentiment was limited to Democrats and their views on the current economic situation: Democrats' consumer sentiment index rose from 90.9 to 92.6, their current situation index rose from 86.1 to 90.8, and their expectations index fell slightly from 94 to 93.7.
Among independents, the composite sentiment index fell slightly from 62.2 to 62.0. The current situation index fell from 59.3 to 58, and the expectations index rose from 64.1 to 64.5.
There was also a slight drop among Republicans, with the overall index falling from 47.4 to 47. The Current Situation Index fell from 33.5 to 32.6, while the Expectations Index remained unchanged at 56.3.
The survey shows sentiment is much lower than it was in September 2020, which could explain why many voters respond in the negative when asked if their lives are better than they were four years ago. In September 2020, the index rose to 80.4 from 74.1 the previous month. At its lowest point in the pandemic year, the index fell to 71.8, 4% higher than it is now.
Compared to a year ago, sentiment is up 1.8 percent, but the current situation index is down 11.5 percent and the expectations index is up 11.6 percent.
According to the University of Michigan, September's increase was driven by a more favorable outlook on prices and a perception that the purchasing environment for durable goods had improved.
The election is weighing on expectations.
“Consumers remain cautious as the looming election continues to create a great deal of uncertainty,” said Joan Hsu, director of consumer research at the University of Michigan.
Su said both Republicans and Democrats expect Kamala Harris to win — a reversal from earlier this summer, when Donald Trump was seen as likely to beat Joe Biden. The interviews for this month's primary poll were conducted before the debate.
