Democrats outwardly maintain that they’re more resolved than ever to sustain the government shutdown, yet signs of division are surfacing within the party, hinting that the standoff might soon come to an end.
Initially, a significant majority of voters placed the blame for the shutdown on Republicans after Democrats voted against the Clean Continuance Resolution (CR) introduced by House Republicans. This likely stems from a misunderstanding regarding the voting dynamics—a situation complicated by the invocation of the filibuster. Without the filibuster, Senate Republicans would only require a simple majority of 51 votes from the 100 senators to pass the CR. However, with the filibuster invoked, they now need 60 votes to end debate, in addition to a simple majority for the final vote.
Currently, Republicans hold a narrow majority in the Senate with 53 seats, sufficient to get the CR through without filibustering, but not enough for the motion to end debate. This means they would need seven Democrats to cross party lines to resolve the impasse.
Meanwhile, Democrats, aided by favorable media narratives, have been shifting the blame onto Republicans and former President Trump. Their reasoning is straightforward: with control over both Congress and the White House, the onus of the shutdown falls entirely on Republicans. For a time, this strategy appeared effective, as a poll in early October indicated that most Americans viewed Republicans as responsible for the shutdown. Yet, as the situation drags on, this perception may be turning into an advantage for Democrats.
Polling suggests that while Republicans still carry much of the blame, Trump’s backing for both parties highlights the urgency for Democrats to cease their delaying tactics and pass the CR. A recent Quinnipiac University poll shows that 40% of registered voters approve of Trump’s presidency, a slight uptick from the previous month.
In contrast, only 35% rated Republican performance positively, while 59% disapproved; Congressional Democrats fared worse, with just 26% support and 67% disapproval noted among registered voters.
Internally, Democrats are reportedly discussing the necessity of breaking the deadlock. Former Democratic strategist Dan Turrentine mentioned that he’s been in contact with individuals from the Capitol who believe the shutdown won’t last much longer. “There’s no conversation about waiting until Thanksgiving,” he said. Instead, there seems to be a growing recognition among some Democrats that it’s time to find a way out.
While Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries maintain that their members won’t support passing the CR without certain Democratic demands being met, the number of Democrats willing to collaborate with Republicans has increased. Initially, only two Democratic senators, Catherine Cortez Masto and John Fetterman, voted with Republicans on the CR. Recently, two more Georgians, Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock, joined them, although Cortez Masto subsequently returned to the fold with Democrats to prolong the shutdown.
At present, Republicans command 55 votes (53 from their party and 2 from Democrats) in support of re-establishing the federal government. Yet they require five more votes to end both the shutdown and the ongoing debate, with a simple majority needed for final approval.
As the standoff continues, millions of Americans and essential federal workers are enduring delays in much-needed support and pay. For now, it seems Democrats are prepared to leverage this hardship for political gain.
