Democrats face tough choices in border vs. shutdown scenario

Democrats are in a tough spot as Republicans seek to force them to choose between keeping the government's doors open and enacting strict border reforms.

House Republicans are openly pursuing a “personnel 2 or bust” funding negotiation strategy, leaving Democrats with few satisfactory options.

HR 2 is a Republican border package that was approved by the House in May. At the time, the bill was seen as a politically unworkable messaging bill full of hawkish provisions, but it now has a chance to pass.

That opportunity lies in Congress' fight to fund the government ahead of a partial shutdown on January 19th and a full shutdown on February 2nd. Republicans, led by House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana), say they want HR2 or HR. 2-like provisions for playing ball when passing a budget.

On Sunday, Congressional leaders announced they had reached a maximum spending agreement to fund the federal government for the remainder of fiscal year 2024. This is the first step toward avoiding a partial government shutdown. The deal still needs to pass both chambers, with some hardline House Republicans pushing to force a government shutdown across the border.

Johnson has emphasized his support for the conference, recently calling on more than 60 people, including border officials in battleground states such as Rep. Juan Siscomani (R-Ariz.) and Rep. Tony Gonzalez (R-Texas). He has emphasized his support for the conference at border press conferences attended by Republicans. , the district where the conference was held.

HR2 crosses a red line multiple times for Democrats, who enter an election year with low approval ratings for President Biden and hope to be blamed for even causing a government shutdown. not present.

This standoff is reminiscent of two key moments in the border policy bill. The government shutdown threat was orchestrated by former Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.) against then-President Clinton in 1996 and led to the Illegal Immigration Reform and Immigrant Responsibility Act (IIRIRA). Before the election, the Senate scrambled to pass the Secure Fence Act of 2006.

Both bills, passed in a rush to suit political timing, have been criticized by supporters who see them as central to a broken immigration system.

This view sparked opposition to the December Senate negotiations that sought to rush border legislation into law by the deadline, and between leadership led by the Congressional Hispanic Caucus (CHC) and immigrant advocates on the Hill. I drove a wedge into it.

In some ways, finding a common enemy in Mr. Johnson's proposal healed the wound and allowed Democrats to focus their attacks on House Republicans.

“House Republicans are now threatening to shut down the government in order to pass extreme immigration policies, holding American families hostage along with critical funding desperately needed by our allies,” said Nanette, CHC Chair.・Mr. Barragan (Democrat, California) said.

Senate negotiations mean aid to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan will be delayed over border policy, while threats of a government shutdown have significantly escalated.

“Republicans are trying to manufacture another government shutdown crisis in order to push through strong policies that are political and, worse, ineffective. “They say they want to improve conditions, even though they have already refused, adding to the hypocrisy,” Barragan said.

But Democrats are on thin ice.

Supporters may hate HR2, but the public doesn't care much about the details of immigration policy, and Democrats need to make the case why blocking the bill is worth shutting down. Dew.

“If Republicans maintain their HR2 or nothing stance, the government will be shut down on this. The problem for Democrats is that they can clearly explain why HR2 is a policy and political disaster. How are they going to fight the battle that will define HR 2?'' a person familiar with the negotiations spoke candidly on condition of anonymity.

The Republican bill would cut asylum, mandate construction of a border wall, increase domestic enforcement, roll back legal protections for immigrant minors and reinvigorate the E-Verify program. .

These provisions are harmful to many immigrant communities, primarily because similar policies have led to serious human rights violations around the world and can have a chilling effect on immigrant and Latino communities targeted by authorities. be.

However, it is unclear how the public will judge these provisions, and public sentiment is already turning against immigration.

“Current politics are so detrimental to new arrivals that even if no policy is implemented and the government is shut down, the political conditions for improving subsequent policy development will not be in place. '' said a person familiar with the negotiations.

While attritional xenophobia is likely to strengthen House Republicans' position, HR2's most ardent supporters want to strike while the iron is hot.

Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) on Thursday's “Sean Spicer Show” accused Biden and Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas of “lawlessness” and the urgent need to approve H.R. 2. sued.

“So we shouldn't do this for political purposes. We can't say, 'If we just fight, we'll win the election, but next January we'll know the results.' No, we now have a duty to actually stop them. So we need to withhold funding and bring Biden to the table. There is no other choice. It’s now or never,” Roy said.

Alexander Aviña, a historian at Arizona State University who specializes in 20th-century Mexico, says restrictive border and immigration bills like IIRIRA and the Secure Fence Act are important in a long-term militarization trend. It is said that we are at a “transitional period''.

“The militarization of the border goes back to the Mexican Revolution of 1910,” said Aviña, who is also Ciscomani's brother-in-law and has been a vocal critic of the Arizona Republican's positions.

“The gradual fortification and militarization of this border continues constantly,” he added.

Supporters say that even if Democrats relent and pass Republican proposals to strengthen the border, there is little evidence that the reforms would reduce immigration in the long term, creating a losing scenario for the Biden administration. I'm worried that it might be born.

“There is a risk that we could end up in a very awkward situation where some Republican lawmakers either shut down the government or allow themselves to pursue policies that are likely to further worsen the situation on the ground in an election year.” “We've seen this type of hostage situation for fundraising purposes before, but this one is especially important because the political landscape of this issue has changed dramatically,” said FWD.us Immigration Policy. said Andrea Flores, vice president.

But Mr. Johnson is also in a delicate position where he cannot afford to lose votes, meaning there is little, if any, room to withdraw from Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (New York)'s H.R. 2 proposal. are doing. He has already been told that he is not the first choice in the Democratic-controlled Senate.

Some supporters are reading this as an intention to seek closure.

“They're clearly playing politics, moving the goalposts, not actually negotiating in earnest,” said Kelly Talbot, executive director of the Immigration Hub.

“I think this is all going to lead to a shutdown. You know, I think that's what the Republicans want. They wanted a shutdown. They wanted it in the fall. And now, Instead of actually legislating, they're trying to use the border as an excuse to shut down the government so they can point fingers.”

Updated at 5:23 p.m.