Two Florida ballot measures on abortion and recreational marijuana could upend the state's election, worrying Republicans but giving Democrats hope in this year's presidential and key Senate races.
With polls showing a close race between former President Trump and Vice President Harris, as well as Republican Sen. Rick Scott and former Representative Debbie Mucarsel Powell, bills on abortion and marijuana could draw more Democratic voters to the polls.
Florida voters can have their say on Amendments 3 and 4, which would legalize recreational marijuana and enshrine the right to abortion in the state constitution, respectively.
Democrats point out that these issues have infuriated key parts of the Democratic base in the 2022 midterm elections and in Virginia's unofficial elections.
“These voting measures will obviously have an impact on turnout and enthusiasm, but most importantly, it means we're going to be investing aggressively in voter mobilization, which is a tool we need as Democrats,” said Christian Ulbert, a Florida-based Democratic strategist who served as a senior adviser to Biden's 2020 presidential campaign.
Meanwhile, Republican strategists have warned that Florida has a history of voting for liberal ballot measures and Republican candidates during elections. For example, in 2020, former President Trump won Florida by just over 3 percentage points, but a measure to raise the state's minimum wage passed with 60.82% of the vote.
Florida Republicans have won big victories since 2020, helping to further cement the state as a conservative power. While Democrats across the country have successfully campaigned to unite their Republican opponents on overturning Roe v. Wade in 2022, Florida Republicans have won by a landslide, double-digit margin.
But abortion access has since changed in Florida, impacting the political landscape. In 2023, Governor Ron DeSantis (R) signed the state's six-week abortion ban into law. A year later, the Florida Supreme Court upheld the ban but also allowed a ballot measure to be put to voters in November.
Both Harris and Mucarsel-Powell's campaigns have focused on the abortion issue in the state. Earlier this month, Harris' campaign kicked off a “Reproductive Rights for All” bus tour in Palm Beach, where Mucarsel-Powell also joined.
“They're motivated to vote on abortion,” said Lauren Chow, a spokeswoman for Mucarsel-Powell. “It's not just that the abortion issue is drawing Democrats and women's supporters. I would say it's mobilizing all demographics. They're coming out to the polls, and they're voting for Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, who is fighting for freedom.”
President Trump confirmed last month that he would vote against Amendment 4, saying the state's six-week travel ban was too harsh.
“At the same time, Democrats are extreme because the last nine months have been ridiculous,” the former president said. “All of this is unacceptable, and that's why I'm going to vote no.”
Florida Republican strategist Ford O'Connell called Trump's position “the most acceptable to Floridians on the issue of abortion across the state.”
Scott has also said he would vote against Amendment 4. Earlier this year, he said he would support a 15-week abortion ban, with exceptions, instead of the six-week ban.
Other Republicans up for reelection in Florida are less clear on how they'll vote on the amendment. Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla.) said in an interview with Politico on Thursday that her opinion on the bill “doesn't matter” and that policy questions shouldn't be put to a vote.
While Republicans like Luna have come under attack from Democrats on abortion, DeSantis has urged Republicans to publicly voice their support for the amendment.
“Right now it's important for all of our political leaders to stand up and speak out. You know, some of us are just letting the political winds blow. When the winds are blowing against us, we run and hide. That's not leadership. That's not what makes our state great,” DeSantis said at a Florida Republican Party fundraiser dinner on September 7.
Republicans are not united in their support for the Third Amendment. President Trump confirmed last week that he would vote for a bill to legalize recreational marijuana, an announcement that drew immediate backlash from Harris' campaign, who accused Trump of “blatant pandering.”
However, Governors Scott and DeSantis oppose the bill, with Governor Scott citing his brother's lifelong struggle with substance abuse in his decision.
Republicans say there's a strategy behind Trump and Scott's stance on the marijuana amendment in terms of appealing to a certain age group.
“[Trump] “We understand that it works for voters under 40,” O'Connell said.
a Florida Atlantic University/Main Street Research Poll A poll released last month found that support for the amendment varied across age groups, with 69% of voters aged 18 to 49 saying they supported it, compared to just 47% of those over 50.
In Collier County, which includes the Naples-Marco Island metropolitan area, support for the amendment could have a major impact on much of the area's elderly population. Earlier this week, the county commission voted 5-0 to formally oppose Amendment 3. Scott, who owns a home in Collier County, won the county in 2018 with 65 percent of the vote.
But Amendment 3 supporters are skeptical of the argument that seniors are less in favor of marijuana legalization.
“These are the same people I was worried about when I introduced my other amendments,” said John Morgan, a Florida lawyer and Democratic donor who led two major campaigns to legalize medical marijuana in his state, one of which passed with more than 70% support.
Morgan has been nicknamed “Pot Daddy” by the marijuana legalization movement.
Republicans and Democrats acknowledge that the effort behind the voting measures is strictly bipartisan.
“Sixty percent is a pretty high bar to hit,” said Chris Hartline, a senior adviser to the Scott campaign.
“Realistically, to get 60 percent support, we need Republican votes, and frankly, they don't want these ballot measures to be associated with Debbie or Kamala's campaign,” he said.
But Democrats say these two issues have given them the impetus to build a broad base of support.
“Neither of these issues are partisan,” said Nikki Fried, chair of the Florida Democratic Party. “Democrats, Republicans and independents stand with us on the Fourth Amendment and we stand with them on marijuana.”
Morgan predicted the two measures would not hurt Democrats.
“It can only help,” he said.
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