Geographic Concerns in America’s Broccoli Supply
A recent study highlights a potential geographic vulnerability in the United States’ broccoli supply, which is predominantly sourced from California—over 90% to be exact. This heavy reliance makes the supply chain especially susceptible to the impacts of drought.
Researchers from Cornell University examined the effects of drought conditions on broccoli shipments and looked into whether boosting production on the East Coast could safeguard domestic supplies. The findings, published in the journal Agribusiness, utilized historical shipping and drought data to analyze the supply chain under varying conditions: normal, moderate drought, and severe drought.
The study projected that broccoli shipments from California could dip by almost 9% in a moderate drought scenario, and over 20% in severe drought conditions. However, Christopher Valadez, who heads the Central California Growers and Shippers Association, urged caution in reading these figures. He stated that they represent a statistical average based on historical shipping data correlated with drought indices from 2000 to 2019, and there’s no concrete record indicating such a drastic decline in domestic supply in any single year.
Valadez reflected on how California’s coastal regions have managed to keep supplying fresh broccoli through various droughts, adapting their irrigation, crop management, and planting strategies effectively.
Interestingly, expanding broccoli production across ten eastern states could offer additional resilience against drought in California. The researchers found that the seasonal growing patterns allow for production to shift northward—beginning in southern states when it’s cooler and moving to the north as temperatures rise.
In severe drought conditions, this strategy could even cut annual supply chain costs by around $10 million and reduce transportation distances to eastern markets by about 20%, as per the study’s model.
Valadez acknowledged that while boosting production in the East could help diversify sources, these regions also face distinct weather challenges. Issues like summer heat, moisture-related diseases, and significant seasonal variations pose risks. He emphasized that smart diversification is essential for managing risk, but one must also consider California’s “proven adaptability and quality advantages” when evaluating the robustness of the broccoli supply chain.
Even if production expands on the East Coast, California is likely to remain a key player in supplying broccoli, particularly if the goal is not to replace but to supplement the current output, providing suppliers with additional options during times of drought.
