Virginia’s Redistricting Vote Raises Questions
In the aftermath of Virginia’s recent redistricting, it seems some strategists believe the Democratic Party might have made a significant misstep. The proposed redistricting map appeared to promise Democrats a favorable 10-1 seat advantage over Republicans, shifting from their current 6-5 edge. In the final tally, this new map passed by a margin of about three points.
However, it’s worth noting that those ten newly drawn Democratic seats aren’t a done deal. Patrick Ruffini, a pollster with Echelon Insights, pointed out that one area, referred to as the “Lobster District,” barely approved the initiative—by just 0.3 points. Interestingly, that same district had backed former Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris by a notable seven points in the past election.
“Is Dummy Mander coming?” Ruffini pondered aloud.
Meanwhile, Republican strategist Matt Whitlock highlighted that Republicans voted against the gerrymandered maps in three of the freshly drawn districts. Even though expectations were low, they managed to secure wins in the deep red 9th District and surprisingly in the 2nd and 6th Districts as well.
Whitlock noted, “This is quite surprising. Democrats were banking on Fairfax to propel the referendum, yet Republicans turned out enough votes to take three new districts, keeping ‘Lobster’ district incredibly close at 0.3 points and limiting other blue districts to roughly 5.3 points.” It’s unclear if moderate and center-left voters opposed the map out of a sense of fairness, or if Republican enthusiasm was the real driver behind the turnout. Either way, it may indicate some real damage to the Democratic brand in Virginia, especially considering Governor Abigail Spanberger’s previous 15-point victory over her GOP rival just five months ago.
Despite the current approval, this gerrymander could face a tough time in the courts. Former Virginia Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli indicated potential grounds for legal challenges, sharing that a Tazewell Circuit Court previously deemed the referendum unconstitutional. The election results haven’t been certified yet, meaning the map isn’t in effect, but Cuccinelli anticipates an appeal that could eventually reach the Virginia Supreme Court.
