Concerns About AI and the Job Market

A Nobel laureate has voiced concerns that ongoing predictions of artificial intelligence disrupting employment could actually create a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Robert Shiller, who won the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2013, shared his thoughts in a guest essay published recently. He noted that anxiety about AI is not a new phenomenon in society.

Shiller highlighted that from Aristotle’s time—when people worried about self-operating looms and automated musical instruments—there has been a longstanding fear of technology replacing human jobs. He referenced the Luddites, a group of 19th-century British textile workers who sabotaged machinery they believed threatened their livelihoods.

He expressed concern that similar fears are rising again. Citing a Quinnipiac poll from March, he mentioned that 70% of respondents believe AI will lead to job losses. Another survey indicated that merely 16% of Americans expect AI to have a positive impact on society in the next two decades.

Shiller pointed out, “I think AI has the potential to reduce jobs. However, I don’t necessarily attribute everything to the technology itself; rather, I am concerned about the fear it generates.” He elaborated, saying our brains respond to narratives, and fears shared socially can influence individual financial decisions. “When numerous people act on negative expectations, that fear can actually shape reality,” he cautioned.

Much of the negative media focus on AI revolves around hypothetical impacts on employment and economic health. For instance, in late May, Dario Amodei, CEO of Anthropic, warned that AI might eliminate half of entry-level white-collar jobs within five years, potentially escalating unemployment to 20%. Amodei also acknowledged uncertainty about these projections.

The current unemployment rate stands at 4.3%, an increase from 4% when President Trump took office in January 2025.

Shiller argues that the job market is experiencing a slowdown for multiple reasons, but fears regarding the AI threat may be intensifying this stagnation and contributing to a decline in consumer confidence.

He suggested that tech leaders like Amodei might be overly focused on presenting alarming scenarios about their capabilities and should temper their messages to avoid contributing to a recession.

Ultimately, Shiller believes it’s crucial to talk to Silicon Valley leaders about countering these negative narratives. While promoting the alarming potential of their AI systems might boost sales, it could create difficulties in a recession. “We should remember the key lessons from history,” he concluded.