(NEXSTAR) – The Labor Department announced this week that egg prices are up nearly 40% compared to a year ago. One expert says the situation will get even worse.
Patrick Penfield, a professor at Syracuse University School of Business and a supply chain expert, said egg prices could rise another 20% in 2025 as the bird flu epidemic shows no signs of slowing. I predict that there will be.
The bird flu pandemic has already killed more than 100 million laying hens. Once the virus is detected, all birds on the farm must be killed to reduce the spread of the disease.
Once that happens, it can take about five months for poultry farmers to recover, Penfield explained. “Once a chicken is five months old, it can lay about one egg a day,” he said.
Rapid and severe supply constraints led to soaring prices. The average cost of 12 eggs is about $4.15, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. In places like California, it's much more expensive, almost $9, Penfield said.
California, Nevada, Washington, and Oregon require all eggs sold within their states to be cage-free, driving prices even higher in those states. Chad Hart, an agricultural economist and professor at Iowa State University, said influenza is spread through the droppings of wild birds that move around the farm, so letting chickens roam free actually increases the risk of contracting the virus.
Currently, there are no effective vaccines or treatments to prevent the virus, leaving farmers in a difficult situation.
“We hope that chickens will start to develop some kind of natural immunity to avian influenza, but we haven't seen that yet and it will be many years before that happens,” Penfield told Nexstar. “Also, even if infected, we do not know whether this immunity will protect the chickens if the avian influenza virus mutates.As egg farmers, our only recourse is to eliminate exposure to wild birds and avoid exposure to humans. Adopt biosecurity practices such as limiting contact with “covered enclosures'' and reducing large puddles and standing water. ”
Egg prices peaked two years ago in January 2023, when a massive spike in bird flu drove the national average price to $4.82 per dozen. Penfield predicted it would surpass that price by mid-February or sooner.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
